Today I'd like to share with your part TWO of how to prevent
big losses, and that is:
DON'T GET GREEDY.
Successful poker players all have one thing in common:
They understand the PSYCHOLOGY of greed, and how powerful it
really is.
Let me share a story with you how *I* fell victim to greed
the other night at my local $1-2 no limit game... and how it
emptied my pockets.
Here's how it went down...
I get dealt pocket 6's and am sixth to act.
Josh is first to act and makes it $5 to play. Don and Brett
are next in line and call Josh's pre-flop raise.
The action is to me, with the pot size at $18.
There's no doubt I'll play this one and hope to spike one of
my sixes.
One other guy behind me calls the bet.
Okay... flop comes out:
Ah, 9d, 6s
Perfect.
I've just spiked my 6's and there's an Ace on the board,
which I'm sure someone is holding.
It looks like I'm going to rake a HUGE pot at this point.
Josh comes out firing, as I expect. I immediately put him on
AK or AQ.
Brett folds and Don calls Josh's $20 bet.
Who knows what Don has... I can never put him on a hand
because he's the manic at the table. He'll play just about
anything. He's probably sitting on 10-J, looking for a
runner-runner straight draw for all I know.
Needless to say, he's not the guy I'm worried about.
Actually, I'm not really worried about ANYONE at this point.
I just flopped trips... and all I'm thinking about is how to
milk these guys for all their money.
I decide to not slow-play the hand. I want to find out where
I'm at... so I re-raise Josh's bet. I'm confident I'll get a
call. I know Josh won't fold if he has the Ace, like I
think.
"Make it $50", I say, as I push in my red chips.
The guy behind me folds and the action is back to Josh. He
thinks for awhile as he shuffles his chips.
"I call", he says.
Don, however, doesn't hesitate one bit. He throws in his
chips with some frustration and splashes the pot.
I've done everything right so far... I'm very
well-positioned to rake in a huge pot.
The turn card comes... 4 of diamonds.
Now the board reads:
Ah, 9d, 6s, 4d
So the 4 doesn't scare me at all.
Josh and Don both check this time because I'm in control.
"Seventy five" I say... in a rather DEMANDING voice that
makes it sound like I'm trying to buy the pot.
Josh mucks his hands... which he later told me was an AJ. So
he made a good lay down.
Don, on the other hand, thinks for a moment before calling
my $75 bet. Now I'm feeling GREAT about this hand...
Josh was the guy I was really worried about, not Don. Don's
probably got pocket 2's, or something crazy like that. Who
knows?
The river card is a 2 of diamonds.
Now I hope Don DOES have ducks! If he does, I'm going to
take the rest of his stack.
The board now reads:
Ah, 9d, 6s, 4d, 2d
Don checks to me.
I see the backdoor flush on the board, but I throw out
another large bet anyway.
AND THAT'S WHERE I SCREWED UP.
I SHOULD have checked right behind Don when I saw the flush
on the board. Instead, I got GREEDY and made a stupid bet
because I figured there was NO WAY he chased the flush all
the way down.
Don raises my large bet by going all in, and he seems
confident.
I lean back in my chair and take a deep breath. Then I
call... with the remainder of my stack.
He turns over a 7-8 of diamonds.
He's got the flush, which beats my trip sixes.
So he had flopped an open-ended straight draw... and ended
up catching the flush instead.
I had played the hand perfectly right until the backdoor
flush hit. THAT is when I let greed take over.
I had made another bet when Don checked to me... but I
SHOULD have just checked back.
If I hadn't let greed take over, I would have saved a lot of
chips, and stayed in the game.
Greed is a powerful emotion that can empty your pockets...
just like it emptied mine.
But of course, you can use greed to your ADVANTAGE...
Because once you have your OWN greed under control, you can
learn to make positioning moves and bets based on the greed
of OTHER players.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Thursday, June 19, 2008
How To Stop Losing Big Hands
I have something important to share with you.
This single poker strategy that I'm about to reveal is one
of the BEST (and most PROFITABLE) tips that I've given you
in a long time... so listen up:
When it comes to winning poker, most players have "tunnel
vision."
What I mean is this:
They focus only on how to WIN more pots and larger pots...
whether it's through bluffing, calculating odds, or reading
poker tells.
But what they DON'T FOCUS ON... (what I'm about to show
you)... is actually MORE important than 90% of all the other
"stuff"... and can both INSTANTLY and DRAMATICALLY increase
your poker winnings over the long term.
And that secret is this:
How to STOP LOSING big pots.
You see, there's a lot of strategies out there for how to
WIN hands... but very rarely does a player focus on
strategies on how to NOT LOSE big hands.
Why?
Because they blame THAT PART of the game on luck and other
forces "out of their control."
The reality is, you can win tons of great hands and gain a
chip lead, but it doesn't mean ANYTHING if you don't know
how to keep it.
Think back to when Greg Raymer won the World Series of
Poker... what was the key to his success at the final table?
The key was he had a huge chip lead AND he knew how to keep
it.
He didn't lose big hands, which is what allowed him to keep
his gigantic stack of chips and bully the other guys around.
The concept is equally (if not MORE) important for players
who AREN'T in the chip lead... because no matter how many
pots you win, you won't win a game or tournament if you LOSE
a lot of big hands.
Notice the "catch" here...
I didn't say, "Stop losing hands."
I said, "Stop losing BIG hands."
Because those two statements mean two TOTALLY different
things.
You CANNOT stop losing ALL hands... it's just not realistic.
But you CAN use strategies to stop losing BIG hands...
AND... those are the more important "turning points" of a
game anyway.
So... what's this "hidden" secret strategy that most players
overlook that will allow you to STOP losing big pots?
I thought you'd never ask...
Preventing major losses is a very complicated and
"multi-layered" concept, as I explain in my course...
However, one of the MAJOR components and "core" strategies
behind it can be summed up in one simple, 12-letter word:
ANTICIPATION.
That's right... you can literally cut down on the number of
big hands you lose by simply ANTICIPATING better...
And I don't mean anticipating the CARDS.
I mean anticipating THE BETS, based on what cards COULD come
out of the deck.
Here's an example that will make it clear...
Let's say you're on the button and dealt AJ off-suit. The
blinds are $1-2 and Aaron (a very tight player) makes it $15
to play. Everyone at the table folds and the action is to
you.
This is the best hand you've seen in awhile, so you call the
bet without much hesitation.
That is where you made your FIRST MISTAKE.
You KNOW that Aaron is a very tight player that only makes
pre-flop raises with monster hands.
But you called the bet anyway... because you didn't
ANTICIPATE what YOU would do, even if you hit your Ace on
the flop.
OK, so the flop hits, and the cards are: A,9,2.
Aaron comes out firing with a $30 bet right away...
Now what do you do?
You have to put him on AK, AQ, AA, KK, or QQ. These are
pretty much the only hands that Aaron will make a pre-flop
raise with.
Of course, he didn't check to you, so he probably doesn't
have the cowboys or queens.
So now you think about what Aaron is holding... You put him
on hands that beat yours, but instead of folding you decide
to see another card for $30.
This is where you made your SECOND MISTAKE.
You felt pot-committed and only thought about the $30 bet.
What you SHOULD have been doing though is ANTICIPATING what
Aaron was going to bet after the turn card.
Let's face it... you have to figure he's going to fire
again. Are you prepared to call ANOTHER large bet after the
turn with your AJ?
Of course not... and what you've done here is simply dug
yourself into a big hole because you played only to win.
You got dealt a good hand and flopped the top pair and then
stuck it out in hopes of a better card... when what you
SHOULD have done is ANTICIPATED Aaron's behavior and folded
your cards before the flop.
Hands like these happen to even the best poker players, and
you MUST develop the discipline to fold that AJ and fold
that top pair when you've anticipated what's coming next.
Think about what your opponent is going to bet.
Think about what you'll be WILLING to bet.
Then think about what will happen after the next cards...
and then the ones after that... and then the ones after
THAT... and so on.
It's all about anticipation. If you anticipate the different
scenarios BEFORE they happen, you will prevent big losses.
And when you stop losing big hands, you'll get to KEEP the
chips you win.
This single poker strategy that I'm about to reveal is one
of the BEST (and most PROFITABLE) tips that I've given you
in a long time... so listen up:
When it comes to winning poker, most players have "tunnel
vision."
What I mean is this:
They focus only on how to WIN more pots and larger pots...
whether it's through bluffing, calculating odds, or reading
poker tells.
But what they DON'T FOCUS ON... (what I'm about to show
you)... is actually MORE important than 90% of all the other
"stuff"... and can both INSTANTLY and DRAMATICALLY increase
your poker winnings over the long term.
And that secret is this:
How to STOP LOSING big pots.
You see, there's a lot of strategies out there for how to
WIN hands... but very rarely does a player focus on
strategies on how to NOT LOSE big hands.
Why?
Because they blame THAT PART of the game on luck and other
forces "out of their control."
The reality is, you can win tons of great hands and gain a
chip lead, but it doesn't mean ANYTHING if you don't know
how to keep it.
Think back to when Greg Raymer won the World Series of
Poker... what was the key to his success at the final table?
The key was he had a huge chip lead AND he knew how to keep
it.
He didn't lose big hands, which is what allowed him to keep
his gigantic stack of chips and bully the other guys around.
The concept is equally (if not MORE) important for players
who AREN'T in the chip lead... because no matter how many
pots you win, you won't win a game or tournament if you LOSE
a lot of big hands.
Notice the "catch" here...
I didn't say, "Stop losing hands."
I said, "Stop losing BIG hands."
Because those two statements mean two TOTALLY different
things.
You CANNOT stop losing ALL hands... it's just not realistic.
But you CAN use strategies to stop losing BIG hands...
AND... those are the more important "turning points" of a
game anyway.
So... what's this "hidden" secret strategy that most players
overlook that will allow you to STOP losing big pots?
I thought you'd never ask...
Preventing major losses is a very complicated and
"multi-layered" concept, as I explain in my course...
However, one of the MAJOR components and "core" strategies
behind it can be summed up in one simple, 12-letter word:
ANTICIPATION.
That's right... you can literally cut down on the number of
big hands you lose by simply ANTICIPATING better...
And I don't mean anticipating the CARDS.
I mean anticipating THE BETS, based on what cards COULD come
out of the deck.
Here's an example that will make it clear...
Let's say you're on the button and dealt AJ off-suit. The
blinds are $1-2 and Aaron (a very tight player) makes it $15
to play. Everyone at the table folds and the action is to
you.
This is the best hand you've seen in awhile, so you call the
bet without much hesitation.
That is where you made your FIRST MISTAKE.
You KNOW that Aaron is a very tight player that only makes
pre-flop raises with monster hands.
But you called the bet anyway... because you didn't
ANTICIPATE what YOU would do, even if you hit your Ace on
the flop.
OK, so the flop hits, and the cards are: A,9,2.
Aaron comes out firing with a $30 bet right away...
Now what do you do?
You have to put him on AK, AQ, AA, KK, or QQ. These are
pretty much the only hands that Aaron will make a pre-flop
raise with.
Of course, he didn't check to you, so he probably doesn't
have the cowboys or queens.
So now you think about what Aaron is holding... You put him
on hands that beat yours, but instead of folding you decide
to see another card for $30.
This is where you made your SECOND MISTAKE.
You felt pot-committed and only thought about the $30 bet.
What you SHOULD have been doing though is ANTICIPATING what
Aaron was going to bet after the turn card.
Let's face it... you have to figure he's going to fire
again. Are you prepared to call ANOTHER large bet after the
turn with your AJ?
Of course not... and what you've done here is simply dug
yourself into a big hole because you played only to win.
You got dealt a good hand and flopped the top pair and then
stuck it out in hopes of a better card... when what you
SHOULD have done is ANTICIPATED Aaron's behavior and folded
your cards before the flop.
Hands like these happen to even the best poker players, and
you MUST develop the discipline to fold that AJ and fold
that top pair when you've anticipated what's coming next.
Think about what your opponent is going to bet.
Think about what you'll be WILLING to bet.
Then think about what will happen after the next cards...
and then the ones after that... and then the ones after
THAT... and so on.
It's all about anticipation. If you anticipate the different
scenarios BEFORE they happen, you will prevent big losses.
And when you stop losing big hands, you'll get to KEEP the
chips you win.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
When To "Smooth Call" Your Opponents
Hey, let's talk about the "smooth call".
A smooth call is when you're holding a REALLY GOOD hand and
someone bets into you... but instead of RAISING, you simply
CALL.
The smooth call is VERY POWERFUL, but a lot of players
totally mess it up. Here's how to do it RIGHT...
Let's say you're playing a cash game of no-limit Holdem at a
10-man table. The blinds are $5-10.
You're sixth to act before the flop (good positioning) and
you pick up pocket Aces...
Nice!
A couple players limp-in and the action is to Don, who's an
aggressive player.
He makes it $125 to play.
This is a rather large pre-flop raise at this table. The
normal pre-flop raise has been between $50 and $75 up to
this point.
You immediately put Don on something like pocket Jacks or
tens.
Why?
Because you know that if someone makes an UNUSUALLY large
pre-flop raise, it's probably because they have a hand they
DON'T want to play.
And quite often that hand is 10's or J's.
So anyway, the next guy folds and now the action is to you
with your monster American Airlines.
What should you do?
This is an ideal situation for a smooth call.
Here's why:
You know Don is going to bet again after the flop--
regardless of what hits-- since he made such a large
pre-flop raise.
And you also know that you've got Don beat right now. If you
call his bet, there's no way he's going to put you on Aces.
If you RAISE, Don is going to be scared. Because RAISING
after a big bet means you must have a monster. And that
basically gives away your hand.
OK, so you make a smooth call and put $125 in the middle.
Everyone else mucks their cards, so it's just you and Don to
see the flop.
The flop comes out a "rainbow" (which means there are three
different suits on the board):
8-7-4
This is the perfect flop for you. You figure Don has a
pocket pair HIGHER than the cards on the board, which means
he'll be confident betting his hand.
The only thing to be WORRIED about is if Don has pocket 8's,
since that would mean he just made trips. If he DID have
trips, he'd probably check after the flop and fake weakness.
So anyway, the action is to Don and... as expected... he
comes out firing a $250 bet.
What now?
Well, you could come back over the top of him and take this
pot right now. Or you can do ANOTHER smooth call and go for
the kill.
You think for a few moments... hesitate... then smooth call.
The turn card comes and it's a four, which is PERFECT for
you.
Don doesn't hesitate and puts his last $500 into the pot
now... thinking he has the best hand.
You call, and throw over your monster Aces.
Don shakes his head in disgust and throws over his pocket
Queens.
And you win a massive pot.
Now, that's basically the "ideal" way the smooth call works.
Let's discuss the RIGHT CONDITIONS when you'll want to make
a smooth call... and how you can add this powerful move to
your "poker toolbox"...
*** CONDITIONS FOR A SMOOTH CALL ***
The smooth call is the combination of two main components:
ANTICIPATION + SLOW-PLAYING
The INTENTION of the smooth call is to FOOL your opponents
while letting them dig their own grave.
Here's what I mean...
The smooth call operates on the fact that you ANTICIPATE
that your opponents will continue betting... AND... that you
have the best hand at the table.
When your opponents think THEY have the best hand, they'll
be confident with their betting. They'll become
pot-committed... and will get frustrated that you won't back
down.
That's when they'll make a mistake and go all-in, or simply
bet too much, and you'll come out on top.
There are four main "conditions" for performing a smooth
call... Here they are:
1. You don't need to figure out where you're at, because you
KNOW you have the best hand.
2. You ANTICIPATE future bets from your opponent.
3. You have good positioning.
4. You're not worried about too many players getting in the
hand.
The first condition basically means you should only smooth
call when you have really good hands. We'll talk about the
EXACT hands to smooth call with more in a minute.
We've already gone over the second condition... you need to
ANTICIPATE future bets from your opponent. Most of the time,
players who raise before the flop will bet AGAIN after the
flop.
The third condition is POSITIONING. You can't perform a
smooth call if you're first to act. Then what you're doing
is just check-calling your opponents... which ISN'T the same
thing.
And the final condition for a smooth call is that you're not
at risk of having lots of players in the hand.
This last condition is important because it will help you
prevent bad beats.
Basically, when you have a monster hand before the flop, you
want to narrow the field down to one or two callers...
If you have three or more players seeing the flop, your
monster will get run down by someone who gets lucky.
In the example I shared earlier, Don had made a large
pre-flop raise of $125. That meant there was no danger of
too many players calling...
If the pre-flop raise had been only $40 or so, it would NOT
have been a good situation to smooth call... because the
raise would have gotten multiple callers. And then you're at
risk of a bad beat.
OK, so those are the conditions that need to be present in
order to make a smooth call.
Remember, the REASON a smooth call is powerful is because it
"represents" something like a draw, low pocket pair, or hand
like A-K, A-Q, or K-Q.
If you smooth call before the flop, your opponent will
probably put you on something like suited connectors, two
face cards, or a low pocket pair.
After the flop comes out and your opponent THINKS he has you
beat, he'll keep INCREASING his bet sizes to try to scare
you out. This is a fundamental poker principle...
For each successive round of betting, the bets and raises
will INCREASE. The bets after the flop will be larger than
the bets before the flop. The bets after the turn will be
larger than the bets after the flop. And so on.
In our example, if you came back over the top of Don BEFORE
the flop, he would have folded. That means you would have
won his $125.
At MOST he may have called a $125 raise from you... but then
would have check-folded after the flop. In that case, you
would have won his $250.
But by smooth calling, you got BOTH his $125 bet (pre-flop)
and $250 bet (post-flop)... and then by smooth calling again
you got his remaining $500.
The key is to trick your opponent into thinking he has the
better hand... and let HIM take the offensive. If you can do
that, you're money.
*** HANDS TO SMOOTH CALL WITH ***
You want to smooth call before the flop with hands like Aces
or Kings. You DON'T want to smooth call with something like
A-K or A-Q.
Big Slick is a great hand... don't get me wrong... but it's
not "complete". By itself, Big Slick is just an Ace high. If
the flop doesn't help you and your opponent comes out
firing, you're in trouble.
If you're going to smooth call after the flop or turn,
you'll want to do it with hands like trips, two pair, or an
over pair (like in our example).
Trips and two pair are usually "hidden" from your opponent,
which is why they make great smooth call hands. (Remember,
it's all about making your opponent think he's got the best
of you.)
OK, TWO MORE THINGS to keep in mind...
First off, there are DANGERS to smooth calls. The main
danger is if your opponent catches a better hand than you.
You should be ready for this if there's something on the
board like a straight draw, flush draw, or two face cards.
Let's say you smooth call before the flop with pocket Kings
and the flop comes out 3-Q-6, all diamonds.
If your opponent comes out firing aggressively, be careful.
He wouldn't come out betting UNLESS he felt like he's still
got you beat.
I mean, think about it: Those three diamonds are going to
SCARE him... unless they HELPED him.
It's the same way with flops like 10-J-Q, K-K-5, K-Q-10,
J-A-3, and so on. If there are two face cards out there,
your opponent might have just made trips or two pair. If
there's a straight draw on the board and he's not scared,
YOU should be scared.
The second thing to think about is how you can INTEGRATE the
smooth call into the rest of your game...
The smooth call is a "maneuver" or "play". It will bring you
tons of extra pots and winnings when added to the STRONG
FOUNDATION of your poker skills.
To build your foundation, I recommend that you PLAY poker as
much as possible and LEARN about the game as much as
possible.
A smooth call is when you're holding a REALLY GOOD hand and
someone bets into you... but instead of RAISING, you simply
CALL.
The smooth call is VERY POWERFUL, but a lot of players
totally mess it up. Here's how to do it RIGHT...
Let's say you're playing a cash game of no-limit Holdem at a
10-man table. The blinds are $5-10.
You're sixth to act before the flop (good positioning) and
you pick up pocket Aces...
Nice!
A couple players limp-in and the action is to Don, who's an
aggressive player.
He makes it $125 to play.
This is a rather large pre-flop raise at this table. The
normal pre-flop raise has been between $50 and $75 up to
this point.
You immediately put Don on something like pocket Jacks or
tens.
Why?
Because you know that if someone makes an UNUSUALLY large
pre-flop raise, it's probably because they have a hand they
DON'T want to play.
And quite often that hand is 10's or J's.
So anyway, the next guy folds and now the action is to you
with your monster American Airlines.
What should you do?
This is an ideal situation for a smooth call.
Here's why:
You know Don is going to bet again after the flop--
regardless of what hits-- since he made such a large
pre-flop raise.
And you also know that you've got Don beat right now. If you
call his bet, there's no way he's going to put you on Aces.
If you RAISE, Don is going to be scared. Because RAISING
after a big bet means you must have a monster. And that
basically gives away your hand.
OK, so you make a smooth call and put $125 in the middle.
Everyone else mucks their cards, so it's just you and Don to
see the flop.
The flop comes out a "rainbow" (which means there are three
different suits on the board):
8-7-4
This is the perfect flop for you. You figure Don has a
pocket pair HIGHER than the cards on the board, which means
he'll be confident betting his hand.
The only thing to be WORRIED about is if Don has pocket 8's,
since that would mean he just made trips. If he DID have
trips, he'd probably check after the flop and fake weakness.
So anyway, the action is to Don and... as expected... he
comes out firing a $250 bet.
What now?
Well, you could come back over the top of him and take this
pot right now. Or you can do ANOTHER smooth call and go for
the kill.
You think for a few moments... hesitate... then smooth call.
The turn card comes and it's a four, which is PERFECT for
you.
Don doesn't hesitate and puts his last $500 into the pot
now... thinking he has the best hand.
You call, and throw over your monster Aces.
Don shakes his head in disgust and throws over his pocket
Queens.
And you win a massive pot.
Now, that's basically the "ideal" way the smooth call works.
Let's discuss the RIGHT CONDITIONS when you'll want to make
a smooth call... and how you can add this powerful move to
your "poker toolbox"...
*** CONDITIONS FOR A SMOOTH CALL ***
The smooth call is the combination of two main components:
ANTICIPATION + SLOW-PLAYING
The INTENTION of the smooth call is to FOOL your opponents
while letting them dig their own grave.
Here's what I mean...
The smooth call operates on the fact that you ANTICIPATE
that your opponents will continue betting... AND... that you
have the best hand at the table.
When your opponents think THEY have the best hand, they'll
be confident with their betting. They'll become
pot-committed... and will get frustrated that you won't back
down.
That's when they'll make a mistake and go all-in, or simply
bet too much, and you'll come out on top.
There are four main "conditions" for performing a smooth
call... Here they are:
1. You don't need to figure out where you're at, because you
KNOW you have the best hand.
2. You ANTICIPATE future bets from your opponent.
3. You have good positioning.
4. You're not worried about too many players getting in the
hand.
The first condition basically means you should only smooth
call when you have really good hands. We'll talk about the
EXACT hands to smooth call with more in a minute.
We've already gone over the second condition... you need to
ANTICIPATE future bets from your opponent. Most of the time,
players who raise before the flop will bet AGAIN after the
flop.
The third condition is POSITIONING. You can't perform a
smooth call if you're first to act. Then what you're doing
is just check-calling your opponents... which ISN'T the same
thing.
And the final condition for a smooth call is that you're not
at risk of having lots of players in the hand.
This last condition is important because it will help you
prevent bad beats.
Basically, when you have a monster hand before the flop, you
want to narrow the field down to one or two callers...
If you have three or more players seeing the flop, your
monster will get run down by someone who gets lucky.
In the example I shared earlier, Don had made a large
pre-flop raise of $125. That meant there was no danger of
too many players calling...
If the pre-flop raise had been only $40 or so, it would NOT
have been a good situation to smooth call... because the
raise would have gotten multiple callers. And then you're at
risk of a bad beat.
OK, so those are the conditions that need to be present in
order to make a smooth call.
Remember, the REASON a smooth call is powerful is because it
"represents" something like a draw, low pocket pair, or hand
like A-K, A-Q, or K-Q.
If you smooth call before the flop, your opponent will
probably put you on something like suited connectors, two
face cards, or a low pocket pair.
After the flop comes out and your opponent THINKS he has you
beat, he'll keep INCREASING his bet sizes to try to scare
you out. This is a fundamental poker principle...
For each successive round of betting, the bets and raises
will INCREASE. The bets after the flop will be larger than
the bets before the flop. The bets after the turn will be
larger than the bets after the flop. And so on.
In our example, if you came back over the top of Don BEFORE
the flop, he would have folded. That means you would have
won his $125.
At MOST he may have called a $125 raise from you... but then
would have check-folded after the flop. In that case, you
would have won his $250.
But by smooth calling, you got BOTH his $125 bet (pre-flop)
and $250 bet (post-flop)... and then by smooth calling again
you got his remaining $500.
The key is to trick your opponent into thinking he has the
better hand... and let HIM take the offensive. If you can do
that, you're money.
*** HANDS TO SMOOTH CALL WITH ***
You want to smooth call before the flop with hands like Aces
or Kings. You DON'T want to smooth call with something like
A-K or A-Q.
Big Slick is a great hand... don't get me wrong... but it's
not "complete". By itself, Big Slick is just an Ace high. If
the flop doesn't help you and your opponent comes out
firing, you're in trouble.
If you're going to smooth call after the flop or turn,
you'll want to do it with hands like trips, two pair, or an
over pair (like in our example).
Trips and two pair are usually "hidden" from your opponent,
which is why they make great smooth call hands. (Remember,
it's all about making your opponent think he's got the best
of you.)
OK, TWO MORE THINGS to keep in mind...
First off, there are DANGERS to smooth calls. The main
danger is if your opponent catches a better hand than you.
You should be ready for this if there's something on the
board like a straight draw, flush draw, or two face cards.
Let's say you smooth call before the flop with pocket Kings
and the flop comes out 3-Q-6, all diamonds.
If your opponent comes out firing aggressively, be careful.
He wouldn't come out betting UNLESS he felt like he's still
got you beat.
I mean, think about it: Those three diamonds are going to
SCARE him... unless they HELPED him.
It's the same way with flops like 10-J-Q, K-K-5, K-Q-10,
J-A-3, and so on. If there are two face cards out there,
your opponent might have just made trips or two pair. If
there's a straight draw on the board and he's not scared,
YOU should be scared.
The second thing to think about is how you can INTEGRATE the
smooth call into the rest of your game...
The smooth call is a "maneuver" or "play". It will bring you
tons of extra pots and winnings when added to the STRONG
FOUNDATION of your poker skills.
To build your foundation, I recommend that you PLAY poker as
much as possible and LEARN about the game as much as
possible.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
How To Beat The Short Stack In Heads-Up Poker
Have you ever been in a heads-up poker match and realized
just how much DIFFERENT one-on-one poker is from
multi-player poker?
Most players learn strategies for winning no limit Texas
Holdem when there are 4... 6... 8... or 12 players at the
table.
Not 2.
Yet, you can't win a game or a tournament without MASTERING
heads-up play. In fact, heads-up play is perhaps the MOST
IMPORTANT aspect of Texas Holdem... and here's why:
If you can't win at heads-up poker, you'll never come in
first place.
Period.
And I don't know about you, but I play to WIN. Not to come
in second place.
Most players-- when they make it to a heads-up match-- are
COMPLETELY CLUELESS and don't know what to do. Especially
when it comes to DEFENDING a chip lead.
Why is that?
I think there are three main reasons...
1. Most players only make it to a heads-up match once in
awhile.... so they have very little EXPERIENCE playing poker
one-on-one.
2. The strategies for starting hands, odds, tells, and
betting are so RADICALLY DIFFERENT for heads-up poker
versus-- say, at an 8-man table-- that most players don't
have the KNOWLEDGE needed.
3. Most players don't get to watch and study poker GREATS
play heads-up Holdem, because even the greats will only make
it to a heads-up match once in awhile.
With that said, let me share with you a rather EMBARRASSING
story of how I got "schooled" in a heads-up match earlier in
my poker career... and how I learned the "secrets" to
winning in heads-up poker:
I had fought my way through a 100-man tournament, and found
myself heads-up with someone named Brandon.
Brandon was (and is) a very skilled poker player who loves
to push the action... but at the time, I wasn't intimidated
by him. Because I thought I had this baby in the bag...
You see, I had been catching monster after monster in this
tournament, and I had JUST finished knocking out two players
at once with trip kings.
My chip lead was HUGE. 10 to 1 over Brandon, actually.
I was on a roll.
I had over $100,000 in chips, versus Brandon's $10,000, with
the blinds at $500/$1000.
This thing is OVER, right?
The first hand I looked at was Q-9 while I was small blind.
I limped in, and the action went to Brandon.
"All in," he said.
I folded.
I didn't want to give him the chance to double up.
The next hand was K-4 offsuit. Once again, Brandon went
all-in.
I folded again, and Brandon raked in more blinds.
The next hand I was dealt was A-4. Brandon goes all-in
AGAIN.
This time, I called.
He threw over pocket 4's. The flop, turn, and river come
out:
K-7-9-2-Q
So I didn't hit my ace, and Brandon doubled up.
By this time, he was sitting on $24,000 in chips, and I was
at $86,000.
The next few hands played out... and Brandon continued to go
all-in time after time... and I continued to fold hands like
K-7, Q-9, J-8, and so on.
I just didn't want to risk doubling him up AGAIN with such
"mediocre" hands.
But before you knew it... it didn't matter.
Because I'd let Brandon right back into the game. He had
taken about 10 straight pots from me...
I was frustrated as all hell, and went on tilt. As you
probably guessed, I blew the rest of my chip lead and lost
the match.
Honestly, I think this CHOKE should go down in the history
books right next to the Yankees versus Red Sox in the 2004
ALCS.
Just writing this newsletter makes me sick to my stomach.
Anyway, what's REALLY IMPORTANT is what I did AFTER I lost
that tournament.
I called up my buddy Don... and I told him he was going to
come over and play in me $20 heads-up games.
I think Drew could hear the frustration (and DESPERATION) in
my voice... so he came right over.
We started playing at 7 P.m. and didn't finish until well
after 5 A.M. in the morning. We completed OVER 50 GAMES THAT
NIGHT...
Now let me tell you, I wouldn't trade that night for ANY
other experience in my poker career.
It changed EVERYTHING for me.
And here's why:
Because I crammed in YEARS of heads-up experience into that
one night...
I learned how to play with a big chip lead... how to play
when I was short-stacked... how to "lean" on my opponent
with a small chip lead... and so on and so on.
And since then, I've done this same exercise with TONS of
other poker players... to keep my skills FRESH and to master
the techniques needed to win against different playing
styles.
When I was up against Brandon in that tournament, I had made
a TON of mistakes.
You see, when you have a big chip lead in heads-up action,
the first secret is YOU MUST ATTACK.
To get a perspective on this, think about how you play when
you're the SHORT STACK...
You're prepared to go all-in as soon as possible, right?
Well, you must use this to your ADVANTAGE when you're the
big stack, and PUT YOUR OPPONENT ALL-IN right away... rather
than the other way around.
When you have a big chip lead, YOU must be the one to create
"coin-toss" situations... and fast.
A coin-toss situation is when both players have virtually
equal odds... and the winning hand is determined by whatever
the flop, turn, and river cards are.
In heads-up poker, any starting hand with a FACE CARD is
playable. Or any pocket pair. It's that simple.
If you've got a big chip lead on your opponent and he CHECKS
or LIMPS-IN (calls the blinds), then you should IMMEDIATELY
put him all-in.
He wouldn't be checking or limping-in if he had ANYTHING
DECENT at all...
If he folds, you've stolen the blinds from him, which is
crucial. If he calls, you've created a coin-toss situation.
Odds are you'll win at least one out of every two coin toss
situations. Or at the very least, you'll win one out of
three.
Here's a basic summary of the "rules" you should follow when
playing heads-up poker with a huge chip lead. When I say
"huge", I'm talking about 10 to 1 or more...
Of course, you won't START with a 10:1 chip lead very often
(like I did against Brandon), but you will frequently BECOME
the 10:1 chip leader in a heads-up match if you're a skilled
player.
And that's the exact moment when you MUST PULL THE TRIGGER
AND WIN THE GAME.
If you don't, the chip stacks can quickly even out again and
you may lose your chance forever.
Anyway... here are the RULES you should follow:
1. Any starting hand with a face card or any pocket pair is
good.
2. You should either FOLD or go ALL-IN every time. Nothing
else.
3. Force COIN-TOSS situations... In other words, leverage
the 50/50 ODDS as much as possible. Do this two or three
times and you will almost always win the match.
4. If you're playing against a tight player, it will be even
easier. Keep going all-in on just about every hand and let
the blinds eat him to death.
Read and re-read those four principles and you'll be
prepared the next time you make it to a heads-up match.
In the meantime, you should IMMEDIATELY:
just how much DIFFERENT one-on-one poker is from
multi-player poker?
Most players learn strategies for winning no limit Texas
Holdem when there are 4... 6... 8... or 12 players at the
table.
Not 2.
Yet, you can't win a game or a tournament without MASTERING
heads-up play. In fact, heads-up play is perhaps the MOST
IMPORTANT aspect of Texas Holdem... and here's why:
If you can't win at heads-up poker, you'll never come in
first place.
Period.
And I don't know about you, but I play to WIN. Not to come
in second place.
Most players-- when they make it to a heads-up match-- are
COMPLETELY CLUELESS and don't know what to do. Especially
when it comes to DEFENDING a chip lead.
Why is that?
I think there are three main reasons...
1. Most players only make it to a heads-up match once in
awhile.... so they have very little EXPERIENCE playing poker
one-on-one.
2. The strategies for starting hands, odds, tells, and
betting are so RADICALLY DIFFERENT for heads-up poker
versus-- say, at an 8-man table-- that most players don't
have the KNOWLEDGE needed.
3. Most players don't get to watch and study poker GREATS
play heads-up Holdem, because even the greats will only make
it to a heads-up match once in awhile.
With that said, let me share with you a rather EMBARRASSING
story of how I got "schooled" in a heads-up match earlier in
my poker career... and how I learned the "secrets" to
winning in heads-up poker:
I had fought my way through a 100-man tournament, and found
myself heads-up with someone named Brandon.
Brandon was (and is) a very skilled poker player who loves
to push the action... but at the time, I wasn't intimidated
by him. Because I thought I had this baby in the bag...
You see, I had been catching monster after monster in this
tournament, and I had JUST finished knocking out two players
at once with trip kings.
My chip lead was HUGE. 10 to 1 over Brandon, actually.
I was on a roll.
I had over $100,000 in chips, versus Brandon's $10,000, with
the blinds at $500/$1000.
This thing is OVER, right?
The first hand I looked at was Q-9 while I was small blind.
I limped in, and the action went to Brandon.
"All in," he said.
I folded.
I didn't want to give him the chance to double up.
The next hand was K-4 offsuit. Once again, Brandon went
all-in.
I folded again, and Brandon raked in more blinds.
The next hand I was dealt was A-4. Brandon goes all-in
AGAIN.
This time, I called.
He threw over pocket 4's. The flop, turn, and river come
out:
K-7-9-2-Q
So I didn't hit my ace, and Brandon doubled up.
By this time, he was sitting on $24,000 in chips, and I was
at $86,000.
The next few hands played out... and Brandon continued to go
all-in time after time... and I continued to fold hands like
K-7, Q-9, J-8, and so on.
I just didn't want to risk doubling him up AGAIN with such
"mediocre" hands.
But before you knew it... it didn't matter.
Because I'd let Brandon right back into the game. He had
taken about 10 straight pots from me...
I was frustrated as all hell, and went on tilt. As you
probably guessed, I blew the rest of my chip lead and lost
the match.
Honestly, I think this CHOKE should go down in the history
books right next to the Yankees versus Red Sox in the 2004
ALCS.
Just writing this newsletter makes me sick to my stomach.
Anyway, what's REALLY IMPORTANT is what I did AFTER I lost
that tournament.
I called up my buddy Don... and I told him he was going to
come over and play in me $20 heads-up games.
I think Drew could hear the frustration (and DESPERATION) in
my voice... so he came right over.
We started playing at 7 P.m. and didn't finish until well
after 5 A.M. in the morning. We completed OVER 50 GAMES THAT
NIGHT...
Now let me tell you, I wouldn't trade that night for ANY
other experience in my poker career.
It changed EVERYTHING for me.
And here's why:
Because I crammed in YEARS of heads-up experience into that
one night...
I learned how to play with a big chip lead... how to play
when I was short-stacked... how to "lean" on my opponent
with a small chip lead... and so on and so on.
And since then, I've done this same exercise with TONS of
other poker players... to keep my skills FRESH and to master
the techniques needed to win against different playing
styles.
When I was up against Brandon in that tournament, I had made
a TON of mistakes.
You see, when you have a big chip lead in heads-up action,
the first secret is YOU MUST ATTACK.
To get a perspective on this, think about how you play when
you're the SHORT STACK...
You're prepared to go all-in as soon as possible, right?
Well, you must use this to your ADVANTAGE when you're the
big stack, and PUT YOUR OPPONENT ALL-IN right away... rather
than the other way around.
When you have a big chip lead, YOU must be the one to create
"coin-toss" situations... and fast.
A coin-toss situation is when both players have virtually
equal odds... and the winning hand is determined by whatever
the flop, turn, and river cards are.
In heads-up poker, any starting hand with a FACE CARD is
playable. Or any pocket pair. It's that simple.
If you've got a big chip lead on your opponent and he CHECKS
or LIMPS-IN (calls the blinds), then you should IMMEDIATELY
put him all-in.
He wouldn't be checking or limping-in if he had ANYTHING
DECENT at all...
If he folds, you've stolen the blinds from him, which is
crucial. If he calls, you've created a coin-toss situation.
Odds are you'll win at least one out of every two coin toss
situations. Or at the very least, you'll win one out of
three.
Here's a basic summary of the "rules" you should follow when
playing heads-up poker with a huge chip lead. When I say
"huge", I'm talking about 10 to 1 or more...
Of course, you won't START with a 10:1 chip lead very often
(like I did against Brandon), but you will frequently BECOME
the 10:1 chip leader in a heads-up match if you're a skilled
player.
And that's the exact moment when you MUST PULL THE TRIGGER
AND WIN THE GAME.
If you don't, the chip stacks can quickly even out again and
you may lose your chance forever.
Anyway... here are the RULES you should follow:
1. Any starting hand with a face card or any pocket pair is
good.
2. You should either FOLD or go ALL-IN every time. Nothing
else.
3. Force COIN-TOSS situations... In other words, leverage
the 50/50 ODDS as much as possible. Do this two or three
times and you will almost always win the match.
4. If you're playing against a tight player, it will be even
easier. Keep going all-in on just about every hand and let
the blinds eat him to death.
Read and re-read those four principles and you'll be
prepared the next time you make it to a heads-up match.
In the meantime, you should IMMEDIATELY:
Call a friend or poker buddy and invite him over to play
you heads-up. Put $5 or even just $1 on each game... it
doesn't matter.
The point is to play game after game after game in a
heads-up setting. Play for as long as you possibly can.
When you're done, call a different friend and do the same
thing again. And then do it again next week. And keep doing
this over and over...
Trust me, your poker skills will SKYROCKET when you follow
this simple exercise.
you heads-up. Put $5 or even just $1 on each game... it
doesn't matter.
The point is to play game after game after game in a
heads-up setting. Play for as long as you possibly can.
When you're done, call a different friend and do the same
thing again. And then do it again next week. And keep doing
this over and over...
Trust me, your poker skills will SKYROCKET when you follow
this simple exercise.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
How To Play Tight-Aggressive
There are four main poker playing "styles":
1. Loose-Passive
2. Loose-Aggressive
3. Tight-Passive
4. Tight-Aggressive
The first part of each style refers to which HANDS are being
played. "Loose" describes someone who plays a wide variety
of hands. "Tight" describes someone who is more selective
and only plays good hands.
The second part of each style refers to the BETTING. Someone
who's "passive" often CALLS and doesn't raise the pot much.
An "aggressive" player makes frequent bets and raises.
In general, the most effective poker style is
TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE. I'll discuss the reasons WHY in a moment.
But first, let's take a look at each style and learn the
strategies for winning against them...
LOOSE-PASSIVE
Loose-passive is the most "amateur" style of play. These
fish like to play a wide-range of starting hands and rarely
fold before the flop.
They'll check-call after the flop (and on the turn and on
the river) with hands like middle pair, ace high, or even
low pair. That's why they're often nicknamed "calling
stations".
When you spot this type of player, you want to wait for a
good hand and then bet into them consistently. But DON'T bet
too much unless you want to scare them out.
Usually, the best technique is to "milk" them for chips
before the flop, after the flop, after the turn, and after
the river.
If you're going to bluff a loose-passive player, do so
AGGRESSIVELY... otherwise they might call.
Also, be selective when you attack. The loose-passive player
might have top pair and STILL just check-call it. So be
careful.
LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE
This is the "maniac" or "manic" playing style.
A manic can empty your pockets quickly if you don't use the
proper strategy against him.
You must be PATIENT and understand how to "get under the
skin" of a manic player. Do NOT let him upset you.
For instance, a manic will often play bad starting hands...
or even RAISE with them. When he hits, no one knows what to
put him on, which is part of the reason why he's so
dangerous.
Let's say a manic calls a pre-flop raise with 2-4 offsuit
and the flop comes:
A-3-5
Jerry is holding A-K, and so he obviously thinks he has the
best hand. The turn card is a King and the river is a 10.
Jerry ends up losing a ton of chips to the manic's straight.
And THEN WHAT HAPPENS is Jerry goes on tilt and starts
calling the manic's raises and loses his composure. This is
how the manic can break you.
In order to beat a manic you must wait for a strong hand.
The manic's weakness is that he HATES being raised or
"bullied". Also, I've found that most manics feel
"pot-committed" much more easily.
When you get heads-up with a manic (and you have a strong
hand), raise him or make small bets that entice him to
bluff.
Let the manic come to you... let him make the wrong move at
the wrong time and you'll be able to take his chips. Often
all at once.
TIGHT-PASSIVE
Tight-passive players are fairly easy to beat. If they bet
or raise, get out of there. Otherwise, you can consistently
represent the flop and bluff them out of pots.
Tight-passive players will often "survive" for a long time
in a game because they never risk too many chips. But
eventually they'll get "blinded to death".
Use bluffs, semi-bluffs, and aggressive bets to take a
tight-passive player's chip stack.
TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE
OK, so now we're to the PREFERRED playing style for Texas
Holdem... and that's tight-aggressive.
Tight-aggressive players choose their starting hands wisely.
They rarely "limp-in". Instead, they usually either FOLD or
RAISE before the flop.
After the flop, they'll make aggressive bets if they've got
a hand or if they raised pre-flop.
The reason a tight-aggressive playing style is so effective
is because you only risk chips when you've got a good hand.
But when you DO risk chips, you risk a LOT of them... so it
only takes a couple wins to build a nice-sized stack.
This is the playing style used and recommended by just about
every professional card player.
It's often referred to as "aggressively smart" or "selective
aggression".
Now, the DOWNSIDE of a tight-aggressive style is that it's
often easy to read. This style can often build a tight table
image... and when that happens, your opponents won't give
you action for your big hands.
So how do you solve this problem?
The solution is to INTENTIONALLY establish a LOOSE table
image... by carefully choosing times in the game to play
like a "manic".
For example... once in awhile... show a bluff. Especially
near the beginning of the game. You'll want to do this when
you sense weakness and have good positioning-- just as you'd
do with any good bluff.
Let's say you pick up 8-7 clubs on the button and three
players limp-in. You raise 7x the big blind and everyone
folds.
That's when you flip over your suited-connectors and say,
"C'mon guys, I just KNOW someone had my eight high beat..."
A move like this is usually enough... depending on the
table... to get you action for your big hands later.
That way when you pick up K-K on the button a bit later...
and make the SAME pre-flop raise of 7x the big blind, you
get a caller or two.
A huge advantage of playing tight-aggressive is that many of
your opponents won't distinguish between LOOSE and
AGGRESSIVE.
As we discussed, "loose" is related to which hands you'll
play... and "aggressive" is related to betting.
If you raise aggressively with strong hands... and then mix
it up with the occasional well-timed bluff... you'll be able
to throw your opponents off and keep them guessing every
step of the way.
Of course, as you know, there are many "degrees" in between
these four main playing styles...
Even though you should use TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE as your main
style, you must be able "shift gears" and mix up your
approach throughout the game... that way you don't become
predictable.
More importantly, you must learn WHEN to shift gears... HOW
to vary your playing style... and special "tricks" you can
use to FOOL your opponents without risking too many chips.
When you learn skills like these, you'll be able to
CONSISTENTLY win at Texas Holdem poker-- at virtually any
level-- and immediately raise your "poker profits".
1. Loose-Passive
2. Loose-Aggressive
3. Tight-Passive
4. Tight-Aggressive
The first part of each style refers to which HANDS are being
played. "Loose" describes someone who plays a wide variety
of hands. "Tight" describes someone who is more selective
and only plays good hands.
The second part of each style refers to the BETTING. Someone
who's "passive" often CALLS and doesn't raise the pot much.
An "aggressive" player makes frequent bets and raises.
In general, the most effective poker style is
TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE. I'll discuss the reasons WHY in a moment.
But first, let's take a look at each style and learn the
strategies for winning against them...
LOOSE-PASSIVE
Loose-passive is the most "amateur" style of play. These
fish like to play a wide-range of starting hands and rarely
fold before the flop.
They'll check-call after the flop (and on the turn and on
the river) with hands like middle pair, ace high, or even
low pair. That's why they're often nicknamed "calling
stations".
When you spot this type of player, you want to wait for a
good hand and then bet into them consistently. But DON'T bet
too much unless you want to scare them out.
Usually, the best technique is to "milk" them for chips
before the flop, after the flop, after the turn, and after
the river.
If you're going to bluff a loose-passive player, do so
AGGRESSIVELY... otherwise they might call.
Also, be selective when you attack. The loose-passive player
might have top pair and STILL just check-call it. So be
careful.
LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE
This is the "maniac" or "manic" playing style.
A manic can empty your pockets quickly if you don't use the
proper strategy against him.
You must be PATIENT and understand how to "get under the
skin" of a manic player. Do NOT let him upset you.
For instance, a manic will often play bad starting hands...
or even RAISE with them. When he hits, no one knows what to
put him on, which is part of the reason why he's so
dangerous.
Let's say a manic calls a pre-flop raise with 2-4 offsuit
and the flop comes:
A-3-5
Jerry is holding A-K, and so he obviously thinks he has the
best hand. The turn card is a King and the river is a 10.
Jerry ends up losing a ton of chips to the manic's straight.
And THEN WHAT HAPPENS is Jerry goes on tilt and starts
calling the manic's raises and loses his composure. This is
how the manic can break you.
In order to beat a manic you must wait for a strong hand.
The manic's weakness is that he HATES being raised or
"bullied". Also, I've found that most manics feel
"pot-committed" much more easily.
When you get heads-up with a manic (and you have a strong
hand), raise him or make small bets that entice him to
bluff.
Let the manic come to you... let him make the wrong move at
the wrong time and you'll be able to take his chips. Often
all at once.
TIGHT-PASSIVE
Tight-passive players are fairly easy to beat. If they bet
or raise, get out of there. Otherwise, you can consistently
represent the flop and bluff them out of pots.
Tight-passive players will often "survive" for a long time
in a game because they never risk too many chips. But
eventually they'll get "blinded to death".
Use bluffs, semi-bluffs, and aggressive bets to take a
tight-passive player's chip stack.
TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE
OK, so now we're to the PREFERRED playing style for Texas
Holdem... and that's tight-aggressive.
Tight-aggressive players choose their starting hands wisely.
They rarely "limp-in". Instead, they usually either FOLD or
RAISE before the flop.
After the flop, they'll make aggressive bets if they've got
a hand or if they raised pre-flop.
The reason a tight-aggressive playing style is so effective
is because you only risk chips when you've got a good hand.
But when you DO risk chips, you risk a LOT of them... so it
only takes a couple wins to build a nice-sized stack.
This is the playing style used and recommended by just about
every professional card player.
It's often referred to as "aggressively smart" or "selective
aggression".
Now, the DOWNSIDE of a tight-aggressive style is that it's
often easy to read. This style can often build a tight table
image... and when that happens, your opponents won't give
you action for your big hands.
So how do you solve this problem?
The solution is to INTENTIONALLY establish a LOOSE table
image... by carefully choosing times in the game to play
like a "manic".
For example... once in awhile... show a bluff. Especially
near the beginning of the game. You'll want to do this when
you sense weakness and have good positioning-- just as you'd
do with any good bluff.
Let's say you pick up 8-7 clubs on the button and three
players limp-in. You raise 7x the big blind and everyone
folds.
That's when you flip over your suited-connectors and say,
"C'mon guys, I just KNOW someone had my eight high beat..."
A move like this is usually enough... depending on the
table... to get you action for your big hands later.
That way when you pick up K-K on the button a bit later...
and make the SAME pre-flop raise of 7x the big blind, you
get a caller or two.
A huge advantage of playing tight-aggressive is that many of
your opponents won't distinguish between LOOSE and
AGGRESSIVE.
As we discussed, "loose" is related to which hands you'll
play... and "aggressive" is related to betting.
If you raise aggressively with strong hands... and then mix
it up with the occasional well-timed bluff... you'll be able
to throw your opponents off and keep them guessing every
step of the way.
Of course, as you know, there are many "degrees" in between
these four main playing styles...
Even though you should use TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE as your main
style, you must be able "shift gears" and mix up your
approach throughout the game... that way you don't become
predictable.
More importantly, you must learn WHEN to shift gears... HOW
to vary your playing style... and special "tricks" you can
use to FOOL your opponents without risking too many chips.
When you learn skills like these, you'll be able to
CONSISTENTLY win at Texas Holdem poker-- at virtually any
level-- and immediately raise your "poker profits".
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Poker Jokes
You'll really get a kick out of this...
Awhile back I attended the *Card Player Of The Year* awards
show and saw a stand-up performance by Brad Garrett.
Brad Garrett is the guy from "Everybody Loves Raymond"... he
plays Ray's brother (the big tall one with the deep voice).
Anyway, he is FREAKING HILARIOUS. I honestly don't know if
I've ever laughed so hard in my entire LIFE!
He completely busted on all the professional poker players
in the audience. It was ruthless. Below are some of the
jokes I remember.
GET READY TO LAUGH!
(Disclaimer: Please don't read on if you have sensitive
ears. Remember that these aren't MY jokes... I'm just
recounting what I heard at the awards show!)
*** JOKES TOLD BY BRAD GARRETT ***
Right away Garrett started ripping on Phil Hellmuth:
"We've got Phil Hellmuth in the house tonight... No one told
me that, I just know because I heard WHINING as I came in."
"Next year we're actually gonna have the award show OUTSIDE,
that way Phil can bring his ego..."
LOL.
Then it was on to Mike "The Mouth" Matusow...
"Mike Matusow is also here tonight. Hey Mike, where you at?
Oh wow... I'm surprised you can raise your hand with those
cuffs on!"
"Mike Matusow is nominated for an award tonight, which
proves Darwin didn't know s**t!"
Later, Matusow presented the award for "Best Poker
Ambassador". Here's what Brad Garrett had to say about that:
"Having Mike Matusow present the award for Best Poker
Ambassador is like having Dick Cheney present an award for
marksmanship."
Then it REALLY got bad...
"Jennifer Tilly is shacking up with Phil Laak, the
Unabomber. Jennifer told me backstage that "Unabomber" is
code for one testicle-- and apparently she's having a ball."
"I love watching Jennifer Tilly on that celebrity poker TV
show... people, those aren't nipples. Those are triples!"
"Jennifer has the best rack in all of poker-- Wait, I take
that back. She has the second best rack in all of poker. The
best belongs to GREG RAYMER!"
(OUCH)
"When Greg Raymer says "all-in", it's at the buffet table."
"Greg, you seem like a really nice guy, and you won a couple
million dollars last year... now try eating a f***in salad!"
Garrett had plenty of one-liners for others in the audience
too:
"Amir Vahedi, I haven't seen him since flight school..."
After the break:
"Welcome back ladies and gentlemen. The theater wants me to
remind everyone that there's no smoking inside. Amir, please
put out your shoe."
To Doyle Brunson and his son Todd:
"Hey Doyle, the Civil War called, they found your journals."
"Todd Brunson skipped the clan meeting to be here."
When speaking to Daniel Negreanu:
"Don't worry Daniel, I'm sure your nuts will drop soon."
To Scotty Nguyen:
"Please Scotty, have a sandwich. You look like my X-ray."
And last but not least, Garrett cracked on Barry "Robin
Hood" Greenstein. Here's what he said:
"Barry Greenstein gives all his winnings to charity... of
course, Charity happens to be a STRIPPER who works the late
shift at Spearmint Rhino. If you hurry Barry, you can catch
her after the show!"
***
OH LORD it was damn funny! Even as I write this I'm cracking
up again.
Whew, what a night.
If you ever get a chance to attend something like this, I
HIGHLY recommend it.
Often times the casinos will give away tickets and full-paid
packages to major poker events like this... as prizes in
their tournaments.
Next time I come across something I'll be sure to email you
about it.
Anyway, hope you enjoyed the Brad Garrett jokes as much as I
did!
Awhile back I attended the *Card Player Of The Year* awards
show and saw a stand-up performance by Brad Garrett.
Brad Garrett is the guy from "Everybody Loves Raymond"... he
plays Ray's brother (the big tall one with the deep voice).
Anyway, he is FREAKING HILARIOUS. I honestly don't know if
I've ever laughed so hard in my entire LIFE!
He completely busted on all the professional poker players
in the audience. It was ruthless. Below are some of the
jokes I remember.
GET READY TO LAUGH!
(Disclaimer: Please don't read on if you have sensitive
ears. Remember that these aren't MY jokes... I'm just
recounting what I heard at the awards show!)
*** JOKES TOLD BY BRAD GARRETT ***
Right away Garrett started ripping on Phil Hellmuth:
"We've got Phil Hellmuth in the house tonight... No one told
me that, I just know because I heard WHINING as I came in."
"Next year we're actually gonna have the award show OUTSIDE,
that way Phil can bring his ego..."
LOL.
Then it was on to Mike "The Mouth" Matusow...
"Mike Matusow is also here tonight. Hey Mike, where you at?
Oh wow... I'm surprised you can raise your hand with those
cuffs on!"
"Mike Matusow is nominated for an award tonight, which
proves Darwin didn't know s**t!"
Later, Matusow presented the award for "Best Poker
Ambassador". Here's what Brad Garrett had to say about that:
"Having Mike Matusow present the award for Best Poker
Ambassador is like having Dick Cheney present an award for
marksmanship."
Then it REALLY got bad...
"Jennifer Tilly is shacking up with Phil Laak, the
Unabomber. Jennifer told me backstage that "Unabomber" is
code for one testicle-- and apparently she's having a ball."
"I love watching Jennifer Tilly on that celebrity poker TV
show... people, those aren't nipples. Those are triples!"
"Jennifer has the best rack in all of poker-- Wait, I take
that back. She has the second best rack in all of poker. The
best belongs to GREG RAYMER!"
(OUCH)
"When Greg Raymer says "all-in", it's at the buffet table."
"Greg, you seem like a really nice guy, and you won a couple
million dollars last year... now try eating a f***in salad!"
Garrett had plenty of one-liners for others in the audience
too:
"Amir Vahedi, I haven't seen him since flight school..."
After the break:
"Welcome back ladies and gentlemen. The theater wants me to
remind everyone that there's no smoking inside. Amir, please
put out your shoe."
To Doyle Brunson and his son Todd:
"Hey Doyle, the Civil War called, they found your journals."
"Todd Brunson skipped the clan meeting to be here."
When speaking to Daniel Negreanu:
"Don't worry Daniel, I'm sure your nuts will drop soon."
To Scotty Nguyen:
"Please Scotty, have a sandwich. You look like my X-ray."
And last but not least, Garrett cracked on Barry "Robin
Hood" Greenstein. Here's what he said:
"Barry Greenstein gives all his winnings to charity... of
course, Charity happens to be a STRIPPER who works the late
shift at Spearmint Rhino. If you hurry Barry, you can catch
her after the show!"
***
OH LORD it was damn funny! Even as I write this I'm cracking
up again.
Whew, what a night.
If you ever get a chance to attend something like this, I
HIGHLY recommend it.
Often times the casinos will give away tickets and full-paid
packages to major poker events like this... as prizes in
their tournaments.
Next time I come across something I'll be sure to email you
about it.
Anyway, hope you enjoyed the Brad Garrett jokes as much as I
did!
Thursday, May 15, 2008
HOW TO CALCULATE "BETTING PERCENTAGE"
So now we need to learn how to calculate "betting
percentage". Luckily, this is very simple.
The two numbers you need to compare are:
1. Bet size
2. Pot size
The FORMULA is this:
Bet Size / (Pot Size + Bet Size)
For example, let's say there's $90 in the pot and the bet is
$10. The betting percentage would be $10 divided by $100
($90 + $10)... or 10%.
If you were looking at it strictly in terms of odds, you'd
say your chances were 90:10.
90:10 means you'd miss 90 times and hit 10 times. That's a
total of making it 10 times out of 100 times, which equals
10%.
Now... the FINAL part to all of this is to compare your HAND
ODDS to your BETTING ODDS.
If you have a higher percentage chance of MAKING your hand
than the betting percentage, you should call...
Let's look at some examples to make sense of all this
madness...
Example:
You've got A-2 of diamonds and the flop hits:
5d-Qd-Ks
That means there are two diamonds on the board and two in
your hand... so you've got the nut flush draw.
You're on the button. There's $40 in the pot from before the
flop. Don bets $20 after the flop and three players call.
The action is to you.
So the pot size equals $120, and you need to decide whether
to call or not.
If you based your decision strictly on odds, here's how it
would look:
You have nine OUTS... since there are thirteen diamonds in
the deck and you already see four of them (13 minus 4 = 9).
So we plug NINE into our handy formula...
9 x 2 = 18
Add 1 = 19% chance of making the flush
Now... if we look at the chart (we don't need to), we see
that the real percentage is 19.15%.
Presto. Works like a charm.
Now we just need to compare the bet size and pot size to
find our "betting percentage".
The bet size is $20 and there's $120 in the pot.
So we divide $20 by $140 ($120 + $20).
We don't even need to do the math. We just need to figure
out if it's BIGGER or SMALLER than 19% (which can be rounded
to 20%).
Obviously, 20/140 is smaller than 20%.
The conclusion?
Well that means our odds of GETTING another diamond and
completing our hand are HIGHER than the betting percentage.
This means our pot odds are GOOD. We should call or raise...
but not fold.
OK, now for another quick example:
Let's say we've got K-J of spades and the flop hits:
Ah-10d-4c
No spades... but we have an inside straight draw. All we
need is the Queen.
Let's use the same numbers from the last example:
Pot Size = $120
Bet Size = $20
Should we fold or call?
20/140 equals 1/7. We need to figure out if our odds of
hitting our inside straight are higher or lower.
Well, since the only card that can really help us is a
Queen, we have FOUR outs (the four Queens).
So we double the four and add one...
(4 x 2) + 1 = 9% of getting our Queen on the turn.
The REAL percentage is 8.51%. Pretty close.
So what's bigger... 1/7 or 9%?
The answer is 1/7.
I always just round numbers to keep it simple. In my mind,
9% is about 10%, which would be 1/10. Obviously 1/7 is
higher than 1/10.
So that means our betting percentage is higher than our hand
odds... which is bad.
So we fold.
In order to call, the betting percentage would have needed
to be LOWER than 9%. And as you know, that's VERY RARE.
So... that's it. That's the "quick and dirty" way to
calculate pot odds. Here's the 3-step review:
1. Double your outs and add 1. This equals your approximate
percentage of "hitting".
2. Divide the bet size by the pot size added to the bet
size. (Bet Size / [Pot Size + Bet Size])
3. Compare the "hand odds" to the "bet odds". If the hand
odds are higher, you should stay in the hand. If the hand
odds are smaller, get out.
That's it.
At first some of this may seem like an awful lot of work and
effort... and requires extra THINKING.
But if you're serious about poker, you've got to try these
types of things. What you'll discover is that after using
this stuff for a little while, it all becomes NATURAL in no
time.
And soon you'll never have to actually do ANY of this.
For example... after figuring it out a couple times, you'll
quickly learn that you should NOT chase inside straights.
It's not worth it.
Also, you shouldn't stay in a hand with just an Ace high
hoping to hit top pair (unless it's a heads-up match or
something).
And so on.
But the BAD NEWS is that calculating odds doesn't always
give you clear cut "answers". Odds are just another piece of
the puzzle... to be added to your poker "weapons".
In the first example I shared with you, we were on the nut
flush draw with multiple players in the hand. This is a
situation where the IMPLIED ODDS are so enormous that the
"real" odds don't matter.
Because think about it: If you hit your flush, someone ELSE
probably hit it too... except you'll have the NUTS. This
means you're very likely to get someone's ENTIRE chip stack.
Also... odds don't tell you whether to CALL or RAISE. As you
know, raising is a key part of the game, and can often buy
you a "free card" while on a draw.
And in the same way, it's not even really "possible" to
calculate the exact number of OUTS or the exact POT SIZE.
For instance... if there are three opponents in a hand and
two diamonds on the board, you'd better believe SOMEONE ELSE
is holding two diamonds. So you don't REALLY have nine
outs... since more than four diamonds are being used.
If you aren't last to act, the exact pot size is unknown
because you DON'T KNOW what the player(s) behind you will
do. They may fold, they may call, or they may RAISE.
These are the EXACT reasons why the game of Texas Holdem is
so complex and unpredictable... and exciting.
percentage". Luckily, this is very simple.
The two numbers you need to compare are:
1. Bet size
2. Pot size
The FORMULA is this:
Bet Size / (Pot Size + Bet Size)
For example, let's say there's $90 in the pot and the bet is
$10. The betting percentage would be $10 divided by $100
($90 + $10)... or 10%.
If you were looking at it strictly in terms of odds, you'd
say your chances were 90:10.
90:10 means you'd miss 90 times and hit 10 times. That's a
total of making it 10 times out of 100 times, which equals
10%.
Now... the FINAL part to all of this is to compare your HAND
ODDS to your BETTING ODDS.
If you have a higher percentage chance of MAKING your hand
than the betting percentage, you should call...
Let's look at some examples to make sense of all this
madness...
Example:
You've got A-2 of diamonds and the flop hits:
5d-Qd-Ks
That means there are two diamonds on the board and two in
your hand... so you've got the nut flush draw.
You're on the button. There's $40 in the pot from before the
flop. Don bets $20 after the flop and three players call.
The action is to you.
So the pot size equals $120, and you need to decide whether
to call or not.
If you based your decision strictly on odds, here's how it
would look:
You have nine OUTS... since there are thirteen diamonds in
the deck and you already see four of them (13 minus 4 = 9).
So we plug NINE into our handy formula...
9 x 2 = 18
Add 1 = 19% chance of making the flush
Now... if we look at the chart (we don't need to), we see
that the real percentage is 19.15%.
Presto. Works like a charm.
Now we just need to compare the bet size and pot size to
find our "betting percentage".
The bet size is $20 and there's $120 in the pot.
So we divide $20 by $140 ($120 + $20).
We don't even need to do the math. We just need to figure
out if it's BIGGER or SMALLER than 19% (which can be rounded
to 20%).
Obviously, 20/140 is smaller than 20%.
The conclusion?
Well that means our odds of GETTING another diamond and
completing our hand are HIGHER than the betting percentage.
This means our pot odds are GOOD. We should call or raise...
but not fold.
OK, now for another quick example:
Let's say we've got K-J of spades and the flop hits:
Ah-10d-4c
No spades... but we have an inside straight draw. All we
need is the Queen.
Let's use the same numbers from the last example:
Pot Size = $120
Bet Size = $20
Should we fold or call?
20/140 equals 1/7. We need to figure out if our odds of
hitting our inside straight are higher or lower.
Well, since the only card that can really help us is a
Queen, we have FOUR outs (the four Queens).
So we double the four and add one...
(4 x 2) + 1 = 9% of getting our Queen on the turn.
The REAL percentage is 8.51%. Pretty close.
So what's bigger... 1/7 or 9%?
The answer is 1/7.
I always just round numbers to keep it simple. In my mind,
9% is about 10%, which would be 1/10. Obviously 1/7 is
higher than 1/10.
So that means our betting percentage is higher than our hand
odds... which is bad.
So we fold.
In order to call, the betting percentage would have needed
to be LOWER than 9%. And as you know, that's VERY RARE.
So... that's it. That's the "quick and dirty" way to
calculate pot odds. Here's the 3-step review:
1. Double your outs and add 1. This equals your approximate
percentage of "hitting".
2. Divide the bet size by the pot size added to the bet
size. (Bet Size / [Pot Size + Bet Size])
3. Compare the "hand odds" to the "bet odds". If the hand
odds are higher, you should stay in the hand. If the hand
odds are smaller, get out.
That's it.
At first some of this may seem like an awful lot of work and
effort... and requires extra THINKING.
But if you're serious about poker, you've got to try these
types of things. What you'll discover is that after using
this stuff for a little while, it all becomes NATURAL in no
time.
And soon you'll never have to actually do ANY of this.
For example... after figuring it out a couple times, you'll
quickly learn that you should NOT chase inside straights.
It's not worth it.
Also, you shouldn't stay in a hand with just an Ace high
hoping to hit top pair (unless it's a heads-up match or
something).
And so on.
But the BAD NEWS is that calculating odds doesn't always
give you clear cut "answers". Odds are just another piece of
the puzzle... to be added to your poker "weapons".
In the first example I shared with you, we were on the nut
flush draw with multiple players in the hand. This is a
situation where the IMPLIED ODDS are so enormous that the
"real" odds don't matter.
Because think about it: If you hit your flush, someone ELSE
probably hit it too... except you'll have the NUTS. This
means you're very likely to get someone's ENTIRE chip stack.
Also... odds don't tell you whether to CALL or RAISE. As you
know, raising is a key part of the game, and can often buy
you a "free card" while on a draw.
And in the same way, it's not even really "possible" to
calculate the exact number of OUTS or the exact POT SIZE.
For instance... if there are three opponents in a hand and
two diamonds on the board, you'd better believe SOMEONE ELSE
is holding two diamonds. So you don't REALLY have nine
outs... since more than four diamonds are being used.
If you aren't last to act, the exact pot size is unknown
because you DON'T KNOW what the player(s) behind you will
do. They may fold, they may call, or they may RAISE.
These are the EXACT reasons why the game of Texas Holdem is
so complex and unpredictable... and exciting.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
How To Calculate Pot Odds
You DON'T need to be a "math genius" to understand poker
odds...
Not at all.
In fact, you can be TERRIBLE at math (like me) and still be
able to use "odds" to your advantage at the no limit Holdem
tables.
There are TWO main things you need to learn right away:
1. The concept of OUTS
2. The concept of POT SIZE
These are easy. Let's start with the first.
"Outs" refers to the number of cards in the deck that will
complete (or "make") your hand.
For instance... if you have Ace-King and the board reads
Q-J-4, you need a ten to make your straight.
Since there are four tens in the deck, you have FOUR OUTS.
Or... let's say you're holding Q-J and the board reads
K-10-5. That means you have an open-ended straight draw--
either the Ace or the nine will complete your straight.
Since there are four nines and four Aces in the deck, you
have EIGHT OUTS.
Let's do one more. Let's say you've got 8-7 of clubs and the
board reads 2c-Ad-Kc-3s. That means there are two clubs on
the board and two in your hand. If one more club hits on the
river, you'll have a flush.
There are a total of thirteen clubs in the deck (thirteen of
each suit times four suits equals fifty-two cards).
But that DOESN'T mean you have thirteen outs, because you're
already using four of the clubs.
Instead, you have NINE OUTS (thirteen minus four). If any of
those nine cards hits on the river, you'll have a flush.
OK... so that's how you calculate OUTS. We'll do some more
in-depth examples in a minute, but first let's talk about
POT SIZE.
Pot size is how much money is in the pot. Pretty simple,
right?
There are three main parts to pot size:
1. How much money is already in the middle
2. How much is bet in the current round of betting
3. How much WILL be bet in the current round
Let me explain.
Let's say four players call the big blind of $4 in a game.
That means there's $16 in the middle.
The flop comes out. You're on the button, which means you're
LAST to act. Player 1 bets $10 into the pot. Player 2 calls,
and Player 3 folds. Now it's your turn. What's the current
pot size?
The answer is $36. There's the $16 that was in the middle
first, then $20 more from Players 1 and 2.
The $16 is the first part, the $20 is the second part, and
there is no third part since you were last to act.
Let's take another look. Let's say you were SECOND TO ACT,
instead of on the button.
Four players call the big blind of $4, which means there's
$16 in the pot. Player 1 bets $10, and now you must make a
decision. What's the pot size?
Well, it's $16 + $10 + UNKNOWN.
Why "unknown"?
The reason is you DON'T KNOW if the two players BEHIND you
are going to call, raise, or fold. So you really don't KNOW
the exact pot size.
This is a fundamental reason why math doesn't solve all your
problems in poker. You must use your INSTINCTS to "guess" or
"infer".
In this case, you would try to guess whether or not the
other two players would call or fold (or raise) and make
your decision then. This is also another reason why
POSITIONING in a hand is so important.
One more thing about pot size before we move on...
A lot of players don't know whether to count THEIR OWN MONEY
in the actual pot size.
The answer is you count your own money that's ALREADY THERE
from before. In the example, your big blind of $4 is already
in the pot... so you DO use it to calculate the pot size.
Once your money is in the middle, it isn't yours any more.
Period.
But you would NOT include your $10 in the pot size, because
you haven't put it in yet. You're THINKING about putting it
in.
Make sense?
Let's say you called the $10 bet from Player 1 and the other
players all folded. The turn card comes and Player 1 bets
$20. What's the pot size?
Well, it's $16 from pre-flop, $20 after the flop, and now
$20 after the turn.
You DO count your $10 after the flop because now it IS
already in the middle.
OK... so what does OUTS and POT SIZE have to do with ODDS?
The answer is EVERYTHING.
Now that you know these two basics, you're ready to start
calculating "complicated" poker odds.
To calculate odds, you need four pieces of information:
1. Number of outs
2. Number of "unknown" cards in the deck
3. Pot size
4. Current bet amount
We talked about the outs and pot size. The other two are
very straightforward.
The number of "unknown" cards in the deck simply means how
many cards you DON'T KNOW. Before the flop, there are 50
cards you don't know. You only know the two in your hand.
After the flop, there are 47 cards you don't know. You know
the two in your hand and the three on the board and that's
it.
After the turn there are 46 cards you don't know.
Like I said, this is simple stuff.
And the CURRENT BET AMOUNT is just... well, the current bet
amount. It's how much you must put in the pot to "call".
OK, let's review.
Let's say you get dealt J-10 offsuit. You call the big blind
of $6 and so does one other player. The small blind folds.
The player in the big blind checks. That means the POT SIZE
is $21 ($6 + $6 + $6 + $3).
The flop comes out Q-2-9. You've got an open-ended straight
draw. Either a King or an eight will make your straight.
Since there are four Kings and four eights in the deck,
you've got EIGHT OUTS.
There are 47 unknown CARDS in the deck (52 cards minus the
five that you see).
You're second to act. The first player bets $12. That means
$12 is the CURRENT BET AMOUNT.
The POT SIZE is $21 + $12 + UNKNOWN. The unknown is what the
player after you does...
So there you have it... those are the four pieces of
information you need. The only thing you don't know for SURE
is the pot size in this example.
Sometimes you'll know the pot size exactly (like when you
have good positioning). Other times you'll just have to
estimate.
OK, let's do some odds.
THE WAY TO CALCULATE ODDS IS TO COMPARE THE ODDS OF MAKING
YOUR HAND TO THE ODDS OF THE POT.
Here's the exact "formula":
(Unknown Cards - Outs) : Outs
VERSUS
Pot Size : Current Bet Amount
If the first comparison is smaller than the second one,
that's good. It means that "pot odds justify a call" (or
raise).
For instance, if you have 12 outs and there are 47 unknown
cards, that means you have ABOUT a 25% chance of "making"
your hand.
The odds against you are 35:12, or about 3:1.
Remember... when you see two numbers like X:X, the first
number is the chance of one thing happening against the
chance of the second thing happening. You'll miss your hand
three times and make it once. That's 1/4 or 25% or 3:1.
Now let's say the pot size is $50 and the current bet amount
is $10. That means the odds would be $50:$10, or 5:1.
It's easiest to look at in the X:X format and not use
percentages.
OK, so here's what you've got for this example:
Outs = 12
Unknown Cards = 47
Current Bet Amount = 10
Pot Size = 50
There are 35 cards that WON'T HELP YOU (47 - 12).
So the odds are 35:12 for the cards.
And for the pot it's 50:10. You don't add your $10 to the
first number. Just use the current pot size.
35:12 is about 3:1.
50:10 equals 5:1.
The entire point of calculating odds is to make a good
decision. To make a decision of whether or not to call a $10
bet here, you would compare the 3:1 versus 5:1.
The odds here are IN YOUR FAVOR.
If this scenario played out four times, here's how it would
look STATISTICALLY:
- You lose $10.
- You lose $10.
- You win $50.
- You lose $10.
You lose three times and win once (3:1). When you add your
losses it equals $30 but your wins are $50, giving you a $20
profit.
If the scenario happened eight times you'd win twice and
lose six times. That means you'd lose $60 and win $100...
for a $40 profit.
For real life poker situations, the key is to calculate
whether or not you can "justify" staying in the hand.
Let's say you have A-8 and the flop comes out:
K-10-4
Someone bets $10 and the pot size is $20. What should you
do?
Well, you don't have anything but an Ace high. If the Ace
comes on the turn, you'd have top pair. So let's ASSUME that
your top pair would be the winning hand.
That means there are three cards in the deck that can help
you (the other three Aces). And there areexactly 47 unknown
cards in the deck.
So we have our numbers:
Outs = 3
Unknown Cards = 47
Current Bet Amount = 10
Pot Size = 20
Using our formula...
(47 - 3) : 3
VERSUS...
20 : 10
So the numbers come out 44:3 (about 15:1) versus 2:1. Should
you call?
Of course not.
You're only getting 2:1 for your money but your chances of
winning the hand are very slim.
If the hand played out 16 times you would win ONCE. So you'd
lose $150 (15 X $10) and win $20, for a total loss of $130.
You're always striving for good odds on your money and good
odds on your hand.
Good odds on your hand means the X:X number is as SMALL AS
POSSIBLE... because you want lots of outs. You don't want
there to be only one or two cards in the deck that can help
you. You want fractions like 47:12, 46:10, 46:8, and so on.
Good odds on your money means the X:X number is BIG. You
want 10:1, 5:1, 12:1, and so on.
OK, I'm going to give one more example. See if you're smart
enough to figure this out on your own (you may need to use a
scratch piece of paper)...
You're second to act pre-flop and look down to see Kc-Jc.
You limp-in by calling the $4 big blind.
Three other players call. The small blind (who put in $2)
folds.
The player in the big blind decides to RAISE the pot to $8.
You call. Two of the other three players call... but one
folds.
So now there are four players total in the hand... the guy
in the big blind, you, and the two other callers. (Still
with me here?)
The flop comes out:
Ac-4s-8c
What a great flop for you. You've got the nut flush draw.
The player in the big blind is first to act. He checks. You
check also (which I would NOT recommend doing here, by the
way).
The next player bets $16. The next one calls. The guy who
made the original pre-flop raise folds.
So now the action is on to you.
What is the...
Number of outs?
Number of unknown cards?
Current bet amount?
Pot size?
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...
Should you call?
See if you can figure it out before I give you the answer.
...
...
...
...
OK, so the answer is this:
Yes, you should call.
The pot size is $70. The current bet amount is $16. The
number of outs is 9. And the number of unknown cards is 47.
The pot size was the hardest thing to figure out.
Remember... the small blind folded his $2. Another player
folded their $4. So there was $6 in the middle, plus $32
with the four callers. So $38 before the flop.
Then there were two players in for $16 after the flop, which
equals $32. $38 + $32 = $70. Luckily, there weren't any
other players left to act after you in this exact round of
betting.
The number of outs is simple. Thirteen clubs in the deck
minus the four you already see equals nine. And the number
of unknown cards is 52 minus the five you see... which
equals 47.
Plugging those numbers into our handy "formula" gives us:
(47-9):9 Versus 70:16
That's equal to 38:9 versus 70:16
Now you might be wondering, "How the hell am I supposed to
know what 70 divided by 16 is or 38 divided by 9? It's not
like I'll have a calculator handy at the table!"
True.
But you don't have to know the EXACT numbers. All you need
to know is if the second one is bigger than the first. And
that's pretty easy.
When I do it, here's what goes on in my head:
"38 over 9 is about the same as 36 over 9, which equals 4.
That means 38 over 9 is 4 and 2/9ths.
70 over 16 is closest to 64 over 16, which also equals 4.
That means 70 over 16 is 4 and 6/16ths.
Now I just have to compare 2/9 to 6/16. 2/9 is like 2/10,
which equals .2. 6/16 is kind of like 6/18, which is .33. So
the second one is bigger."
And that means the call IS justified.
Now let me clarify something...
In this example the two numbers are VERY close (4.22 versus
4.375). Usually they WON'T be that close. Usually they'll be
something like 3.3 versus 8.2 or 2.5 versus 4.1.
That means in MOST cases you won't have to do all that
fraction stuff. OR, even if you DO have those fractions, you
won't need to calculate it. You'll probably just consider it
"about even" and make your decision based on other factors.
All right... so that's basically how you calculate pot odds.
Of course, there's more.
You also want to know IMPLIED ODDS. Implied odds aren't as
math-related. Implied odds basically pertain to hands where
you can "bust" or "surprise" your opponents.
In the last example, you were on the nut flush draw, because
you had the King of clubs and the Ace of clubs was on the
board.
If your opponent was ALSO on the flush draw and he had the
QUEEN of clubs, this would be very good for you...
Because if another club hit on the turn, you and your
opponent would both have flushes. But yours would be higher.
In this case, your opponent would likely go "all-in" and you
would win a TON of chips.
So even though the "odds" on your money are 4.375:1, they're
actually higher because of the "implied odds" of your NUT
flush draw.
Besides implied odds, you'll also have to think about the
"unknown" pot size, as we discussed. Many times you just
won't KNOW the exact pot size, and will be forced to guess.
Also... you must be careful to consider what your OPPONENTS
are holding...
Let's say you're holding As-5h and the board reads:
8h-Qh-2h
You have the flush draw. And the odds of "making" it are
good. But that doesn't mean you want to calculate the nine
other hearts in the deck as your "outs".
Why?
Because all your opponents need to BEAT you is a heart
higher than a FIVE. And someone most likely has it.
The point is, when you calculate OUTS, you want to calculate
outs based on making the WINNING HAND.
And obviously there's no way to know for sure what the
winning hand will be... unless you've got the nuts.
So as you can see... there are a LOT of different factors to
take into consideration.
Calculating pot odds is a useful technique for the right
situations. Over the long term, it can become very handy and
will help you make sound, logical decisions at the poker
table.
And fortunately, after practicing pot odds for a few games,
most of the numbers will become "instinctual" very quickly.
That's why I recommend you download and use an "odds
calculator" when you play online poker. Calculators will
AUTOMATICALLY show you the odds of every situation you're
in... no effort or manual work required.
In the same way that you can't build a house with just a
HAMMER, you can't base your entire game on ODDS or math.
My innovative No Limit Holdem Secrets course will give you
the "picks and shovels" you need to start building your
poker game... brick by brick.
We'll build a solid foundation of skills and strategies, and
then go through step-by-step examples so that it becomes
"second nature" for you.
You'll get the "fast track" to successfully building your
bankroll, playing in higher stakes games, and making your
living in the poker world.
odds...
Not at all.
In fact, you can be TERRIBLE at math (like me) and still be
able to use "odds" to your advantage at the no limit Holdem
tables.
There are TWO main things you need to learn right away:
1. The concept of OUTS
2. The concept of POT SIZE
These are easy. Let's start with the first.
"Outs" refers to the number of cards in the deck that will
complete (or "make") your hand.
For instance... if you have Ace-King and the board reads
Q-J-4, you need a ten to make your straight.
Since there are four tens in the deck, you have FOUR OUTS.
Or... let's say you're holding Q-J and the board reads
K-10-5. That means you have an open-ended straight draw--
either the Ace or the nine will complete your straight.
Since there are four nines and four Aces in the deck, you
have EIGHT OUTS.
Let's do one more. Let's say you've got 8-7 of clubs and the
board reads 2c-Ad-Kc-3s. That means there are two clubs on
the board and two in your hand. If one more club hits on the
river, you'll have a flush.
There are a total of thirteen clubs in the deck (thirteen of
each suit times four suits equals fifty-two cards).
But that DOESN'T mean you have thirteen outs, because you're
already using four of the clubs.
Instead, you have NINE OUTS (thirteen minus four). If any of
those nine cards hits on the river, you'll have a flush.
OK... so that's how you calculate OUTS. We'll do some more
in-depth examples in a minute, but first let's talk about
POT SIZE.
Pot size is how much money is in the pot. Pretty simple,
right?
There are three main parts to pot size:
1. How much money is already in the middle
2. How much is bet in the current round of betting
3. How much WILL be bet in the current round
Let me explain.
Let's say four players call the big blind of $4 in a game.
That means there's $16 in the middle.
The flop comes out. You're on the button, which means you're
LAST to act. Player 1 bets $10 into the pot. Player 2 calls,
and Player 3 folds. Now it's your turn. What's the current
pot size?
The answer is $36. There's the $16 that was in the middle
first, then $20 more from Players 1 and 2.
The $16 is the first part, the $20 is the second part, and
there is no third part since you were last to act.
Let's take another look. Let's say you were SECOND TO ACT,
instead of on the button.
Four players call the big blind of $4, which means there's
$16 in the pot. Player 1 bets $10, and now you must make a
decision. What's the pot size?
Well, it's $16 + $10 + UNKNOWN.
Why "unknown"?
The reason is you DON'T KNOW if the two players BEHIND you
are going to call, raise, or fold. So you really don't KNOW
the exact pot size.
This is a fundamental reason why math doesn't solve all your
problems in poker. You must use your INSTINCTS to "guess" or
"infer".
In this case, you would try to guess whether or not the
other two players would call or fold (or raise) and make
your decision then. This is also another reason why
POSITIONING in a hand is so important.
One more thing about pot size before we move on...
A lot of players don't know whether to count THEIR OWN MONEY
in the actual pot size.
The answer is you count your own money that's ALREADY THERE
from before. In the example, your big blind of $4 is already
in the pot... so you DO use it to calculate the pot size.
Once your money is in the middle, it isn't yours any more.
Period.
But you would NOT include your $10 in the pot size, because
you haven't put it in yet. You're THINKING about putting it
in.
Make sense?
Let's say you called the $10 bet from Player 1 and the other
players all folded. The turn card comes and Player 1 bets
$20. What's the pot size?
Well, it's $16 from pre-flop, $20 after the flop, and now
$20 after the turn.
You DO count your $10 after the flop because now it IS
already in the middle.
OK... so what does OUTS and POT SIZE have to do with ODDS?
The answer is EVERYTHING.
Now that you know these two basics, you're ready to start
calculating "complicated" poker odds.
To calculate odds, you need four pieces of information:
1. Number of outs
2. Number of "unknown" cards in the deck
3. Pot size
4. Current bet amount
We talked about the outs and pot size. The other two are
very straightforward.
The number of "unknown" cards in the deck simply means how
many cards you DON'T KNOW. Before the flop, there are 50
cards you don't know. You only know the two in your hand.
After the flop, there are 47 cards you don't know. You know
the two in your hand and the three on the board and that's
it.
After the turn there are 46 cards you don't know.
Like I said, this is simple stuff.
And the CURRENT BET AMOUNT is just... well, the current bet
amount. It's how much you must put in the pot to "call".
OK, let's review.
Let's say you get dealt J-10 offsuit. You call the big blind
of $6 and so does one other player. The small blind folds.
The player in the big blind checks. That means the POT SIZE
is $21 ($6 + $6 + $6 + $3).
The flop comes out Q-2-9. You've got an open-ended straight
draw. Either a King or an eight will make your straight.
Since there are four Kings and four eights in the deck,
you've got EIGHT OUTS.
There are 47 unknown CARDS in the deck (52 cards minus the
five that you see).
You're second to act. The first player bets $12. That means
$12 is the CURRENT BET AMOUNT.
The POT SIZE is $21 + $12 + UNKNOWN. The unknown is what the
player after you does...
So there you have it... those are the four pieces of
information you need. The only thing you don't know for SURE
is the pot size in this example.
Sometimes you'll know the pot size exactly (like when you
have good positioning). Other times you'll just have to
estimate.
OK, let's do some odds.
THE WAY TO CALCULATE ODDS IS TO COMPARE THE ODDS OF MAKING
YOUR HAND TO THE ODDS OF THE POT.
Here's the exact "formula":
(Unknown Cards - Outs) : Outs
VERSUS
Pot Size : Current Bet Amount
If the first comparison is smaller than the second one,
that's good. It means that "pot odds justify a call" (or
raise).
For instance, if you have 12 outs and there are 47 unknown
cards, that means you have ABOUT a 25% chance of "making"
your hand.
The odds against you are 35:12, or about 3:1.
Remember... when you see two numbers like X:X, the first
number is the chance of one thing happening against the
chance of the second thing happening. You'll miss your hand
three times and make it once. That's 1/4 or 25% or 3:1.
Now let's say the pot size is $50 and the current bet amount
is $10. That means the odds would be $50:$10, or 5:1.
It's easiest to look at in the X:X format and not use
percentages.
OK, so here's what you've got for this example:
Outs = 12
Unknown Cards = 47
Current Bet Amount = 10
Pot Size = 50
There are 35 cards that WON'T HELP YOU (47 - 12).
So the odds are 35:12 for the cards.
And for the pot it's 50:10. You don't add your $10 to the
first number. Just use the current pot size.
35:12 is about 3:1.
50:10 equals 5:1.
The entire point of calculating odds is to make a good
decision. To make a decision of whether or not to call a $10
bet here, you would compare the 3:1 versus 5:1.
The odds here are IN YOUR FAVOR.
If this scenario played out four times, here's how it would
look STATISTICALLY:
- You lose $10.
- You lose $10.
- You win $50.
- You lose $10.
You lose three times and win once (3:1). When you add your
losses it equals $30 but your wins are $50, giving you a $20
profit.
If the scenario happened eight times you'd win twice and
lose six times. That means you'd lose $60 and win $100...
for a $40 profit.
For real life poker situations, the key is to calculate
whether or not you can "justify" staying in the hand.
Let's say you have A-8 and the flop comes out:
K-10-4
Someone bets $10 and the pot size is $20. What should you
do?
Well, you don't have anything but an Ace high. If the Ace
comes on the turn, you'd have top pair. So let's ASSUME that
your top pair would be the winning hand.
That means there are three cards in the deck that can help
you (the other three Aces). And there areexactly 47 unknown
cards in the deck.
So we have our numbers:
Outs = 3
Unknown Cards = 47
Current Bet Amount = 10
Pot Size = 20
Using our formula...
(47 - 3) : 3
VERSUS...
20 : 10
So the numbers come out 44:3 (about 15:1) versus 2:1. Should
you call?
Of course not.
You're only getting 2:1 for your money but your chances of
winning the hand are very slim.
If the hand played out 16 times you would win ONCE. So you'd
lose $150 (15 X $10) and win $20, for a total loss of $130.
You're always striving for good odds on your money and good
odds on your hand.
Good odds on your hand means the X:X number is as SMALL AS
POSSIBLE... because you want lots of outs. You don't want
there to be only one or two cards in the deck that can help
you. You want fractions like 47:12, 46:10, 46:8, and so on.
Good odds on your money means the X:X number is BIG. You
want 10:1, 5:1, 12:1, and so on.
OK, I'm going to give one more example. See if you're smart
enough to figure this out on your own (you may need to use a
scratch piece of paper)...
You're second to act pre-flop and look down to see Kc-Jc.
You limp-in by calling the $4 big blind.
Three other players call. The small blind (who put in $2)
folds.
The player in the big blind decides to RAISE the pot to $8.
You call. Two of the other three players call... but one
folds.
So now there are four players total in the hand... the guy
in the big blind, you, and the two other callers. (Still
with me here?)
The flop comes out:
Ac-4s-8c
What a great flop for you. You've got the nut flush draw.
The player in the big blind is first to act. He checks. You
check also (which I would NOT recommend doing here, by the
way).
The next player bets $16. The next one calls. The guy who
made the original pre-flop raise folds.
So now the action is on to you.
What is the...
Number of outs?
Number of unknown cards?
Current bet amount?
Pot size?
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...
Should you call?
See if you can figure it out before I give you the answer.
...
...
...
...
OK, so the answer is this:
Yes, you should call.
The pot size is $70. The current bet amount is $16. The
number of outs is 9. And the number of unknown cards is 47.
The pot size was the hardest thing to figure out.
Remember... the small blind folded his $2. Another player
folded their $4. So there was $6 in the middle, plus $32
with the four callers. So $38 before the flop.
Then there were two players in for $16 after the flop, which
equals $32. $38 + $32 = $70. Luckily, there weren't any
other players left to act after you in this exact round of
betting.
The number of outs is simple. Thirteen clubs in the deck
minus the four you already see equals nine. And the number
of unknown cards is 52 minus the five you see... which
equals 47.
Plugging those numbers into our handy "formula" gives us:
(47-9):9 Versus 70:16
That's equal to 38:9 versus 70:16
Now you might be wondering, "How the hell am I supposed to
know what 70 divided by 16 is or 38 divided by 9? It's not
like I'll have a calculator handy at the table!"
True.
But you don't have to know the EXACT numbers. All you need
to know is if the second one is bigger than the first. And
that's pretty easy.
When I do it, here's what goes on in my head:
"38 over 9 is about the same as 36 over 9, which equals 4.
That means 38 over 9 is 4 and 2/9ths.
70 over 16 is closest to 64 over 16, which also equals 4.
That means 70 over 16 is 4 and 6/16ths.
Now I just have to compare 2/9 to 6/16. 2/9 is like 2/10,
which equals .2. 6/16 is kind of like 6/18, which is .33. So
the second one is bigger."
And that means the call IS justified.
Now let me clarify something...
In this example the two numbers are VERY close (4.22 versus
4.375). Usually they WON'T be that close. Usually they'll be
something like 3.3 versus 8.2 or 2.5 versus 4.1.
That means in MOST cases you won't have to do all that
fraction stuff. OR, even if you DO have those fractions, you
won't need to calculate it. You'll probably just consider it
"about even" and make your decision based on other factors.
All right... so that's basically how you calculate pot odds.
Of course, there's more.
You also want to know IMPLIED ODDS. Implied odds aren't as
math-related. Implied odds basically pertain to hands where
you can "bust" or "surprise" your opponents.
In the last example, you were on the nut flush draw, because
you had the King of clubs and the Ace of clubs was on the
board.
If your opponent was ALSO on the flush draw and he had the
QUEEN of clubs, this would be very good for you...
Because if another club hit on the turn, you and your
opponent would both have flushes. But yours would be higher.
In this case, your opponent would likely go "all-in" and you
would win a TON of chips.
So even though the "odds" on your money are 4.375:1, they're
actually higher because of the "implied odds" of your NUT
flush draw.
Besides implied odds, you'll also have to think about the
"unknown" pot size, as we discussed. Many times you just
won't KNOW the exact pot size, and will be forced to guess.
Also... you must be careful to consider what your OPPONENTS
are holding...
Let's say you're holding As-5h and the board reads:
8h-Qh-2h
You have the flush draw. And the odds of "making" it are
good. But that doesn't mean you want to calculate the nine
other hearts in the deck as your "outs".
Why?
Because all your opponents need to BEAT you is a heart
higher than a FIVE. And someone most likely has it.
The point is, when you calculate OUTS, you want to calculate
outs based on making the WINNING HAND.
And obviously there's no way to know for sure what the
winning hand will be... unless you've got the nuts.
So as you can see... there are a LOT of different factors to
take into consideration.
Calculating pot odds is a useful technique for the right
situations. Over the long term, it can become very handy and
will help you make sound, logical decisions at the poker
table.
And fortunately, after practicing pot odds for a few games,
most of the numbers will become "instinctual" very quickly.
That's why I recommend you download and use an "odds
calculator" when you play online poker. Calculators will
AUTOMATICALLY show you the odds of every situation you're
in... no effort or manual work required.
In the same way that you can't build a house with just a
HAMMER, you can't base your entire game on ODDS or math.
My innovative No Limit Holdem Secrets course will give you
the "picks and shovels" you need to start building your
poker game... brick by brick.
We'll build a solid foundation of skills and strategies, and
then go through step-by-step examples so that it becomes
"second nature" for you.
You'll get the "fast track" to successfully building your
bankroll, playing in higher stakes games, and making your
living in the poker world.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Winning Poker Lessons From Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett is one smart dude. And RICH.
He's the second richest man in the WORLD... right behind
Bill Gates. Forbes estimates that his net worth is $40
BILLION.
(How's THAT for a bankroll?)
What's interesting about Buffett is that he made his fortune
over a LONGGG period of time... by consistently beating the
stock market year after year after year.
He wasn't one of those "overnight" dot-com billionaires.
He wasn't "lucky" to be in the right place at the right
time.
He didn't "invent" some new technology that changed the
world.
Nope... all he did was invest and "pick winners" over and
over. Since taking control of Berkshire 40 years ago,
Buffett has delivered a compound annual return of 22%.
AND JUST BY DOING THAT, he became the 2nd richest man alive.
OK-- so why am I rambling on about 75-year old man who's
good at investing?
The reason is because I've realized that there are DOZENS of
important parallels between the STOCK MARKET and POKER.
Here are just a few:
* The stock market is often considered "gambling", due to
its unpredictable nature... just as POKER is often
considered gambling, even though it's a SKILL game.
* The stock market has a heavy emphasis on odds and
mathematics... just like poker.
* The stock market is predominately a male-driven
industry... just like poker.
* The stock market has PLENTY of up's and down's, and
"streaks"... just like poker.
* And so on.
Of course, these are "surface" similarities.
Now think about the PSYCHOLOGY of poker and the stock
market... and how they're often EXACTLY THE SAME:
* In the stock market, everyone dreams of buying that one
MIRACLE STOCK that will go from $2 to $200 and make them
rich...
In poker, everyone has their "pipe dream" of winning a huge
million-dollar tournament on ESPN.
* When a stock tanks, most investors FREAK OUT and
immediately make several bad investment decisions in a row.
It's usually THESE decisions that hurt them the most.
In poker, this is known as "tilt". Bad beats cause some
damage... but it's usually the decisions you make AFTER the
bad beats that cause you to lose the game.
* Believe it or not, most stock investors come out on the
LOSING END over time... even though the market has
historically gone UP year after year.
Most poker players end up losing over time also, despite all
the "fish" out there to prey on.
* And so on.
OK, so you get the idea.
Lately I've been reading a lot of books about the stock
market... and especially about Warren Buffett. (Hell, I need
somewhere to invest all these poker winnings!)
Anyway, here's what's REALLY interesting:
Warren Buffett's INVESTMENT APPROACH is almost identical to
the POKER STRATEGY I use every day.
And it's the SAME approach used by top poker pros to
consistently win tournaments and ring games...
Interesting, huh?
Of course, it makes sense when you think about it.
If poker and investing are similar, then the guys who beat
the STOCK MARKET probably use the same techniques as the
guys who win at POKER.
And who better to learn poker from than the "KING" of the
stock market... and the 2nd richest man in the world?
*** WARREN BUFFETT'S WINNING APPROACH ***
Warren Buffett operates on PRINCIPLES. He doesn't get caught
up in "hype" or emotion.
Below are the five MOST IMPORTANT principles that he
follows... and how they relate to your poker game.
PRINCIPLE 1: PATIENCE IS KEY.
Patience, patience, patience!
It's the number one mistake that causes most poker players
to lose... and it's one of the "secrets" to Buffett's 22%
annual returns.
Warren Buffett does not make an investment unless he is
absolutely 100% confident that it will make him money.
That means he PASSES UP a lot of great investment
opportunities.
Warren Buffett has said "no" to stocks that ended up
increasing by 10,000%!
But more importantly... he's passed up all those other
stocks that LOOKED GOOD, but PLUMMETED later.
The problem is, us human beings are addicted to ACTION and
MOVEMENT and EXCITEMENT. We don't want to just sit around
and WAIT.
But that's EXACTLY what Buffett does...
He waits.
And waits.
And waits.
He KNOWS that sooner or later, a GREAT opportunity will come
up... and then he'll jump on it.
It's the same way with poker.
You've GOT to be patient. We all want to "get in there" and
make strong bets... bluff out opponents... and take down
lots of pots. We want ACTION.
BUT THAT'S NOT HOW YOU DO IT.
You've got to sit back... be patient... and WAIT.
Wait for good cards.
Wait for the PERFECT time to bust the manic at the table.
Wait for the PERFECT time to steal the blinds.
Wait for the PERFECT time to bluff out an opponent.
Wait for the PERFECT time to go all-in.
And then when you DO make a move...
PRINCIPLE 2: MAINTAIN A "LOW TURNOVER" PORTFOLIO OF JUST A
FEW STOCKS.
Buffett insists on keeping 10-20% turnover with his
portfolio. This means he generally holds onto a stock for
5-10 years... AT LEAST.
This is obviously OPPOSITE of how most investors do it. Most
investors are checking the tickers every HOUR-- watching for
the slightest indication of movement or news.
More importantly... Buffett only invests in a FEW STOCKS AT
A TIME.
Now THIS is crucial, because it goes against everything
you've ever learned.
Growing up, you probably heard this advice a lot:
"Never put all your eggs in one basket."
Right?
Well, Warren Buffett does the OPPOSITE.
He puts all his eggs in one basket... but... he chooses that
basket VERY CAREFULLY!
You see, Buffett believes that if you've done your homework
and you're confident in your decision, there's NO NEED to
"diversify".
In fact, he believes this is the ONLY REAL WAY to get rich
in the stock market. Because if you buy LOTS of stocks, some
are doomed to go down... and that will hurt your gains.
Now think how this relates to poker.
In poker, most players risk money on LOTS of pots, and try
to get the best odds for each one... maybe 55%, 60%, and the
OCCASIONAL 70% or higher.
What PROFESSIONAL poker players do is only play those
OCCASIONAL pots with the best odds.
BUT, they risk more chips when they do it...
So instead of risking 20% of your chip stack five times...
you want to risk 90% of your chip stack ONE time. But you
choose that time VERY CAREFULLY!
For instance, let's say the "average" poker player enters
three pots where he feels the odds are in his favor.
The three pots go like this:
1.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.
2.) He risks 1000 in chips with 50% odds.
3.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.
Now... MATHEMATICALLY speaking... there are EIGHT different
ways these scenarios can go. They are as follows (a win is
designated with "W" and a loss with "L"):
1.) W-W-W
2.) W-W-L
3.) W-L-W
4.) W-L-L
5.) L-W-W
6.) L-W-L
7.) L-L-W
8.) L-L-L
If he wins all three, he ends up with 3000 chips in profit.
If he wins two but loses one, he ends up with just 1000
chips in profit.
If he LOSES two but wins one, he ends up with 1000 chips in
losses.
And he if loses all three, he loses 3000 chips total.
Get it?
Now let me share with you the PERCENTAGES of the above
scenarios.
Watch out, this may surprise you.
If you were to play three pots as described above and risk
1000 chips for each one, and do this exercise 100 times,
here's what would happen:
18% of the time you'd win 3,000 chips total.
42% of the time you'd win 1,000 chips total.
32% of the time you'd lose 1,000 chips total.
8% of the time you'd lose 3,000 chips total.
Your "net average" would be to PROFIT 400 CHIPS.
OK... that's the "normal" approach.
Now let's look at the WARREN BUFFETT approach.
Let's say you entered just ONE pot and risked 3000 chips
(instead of 1000) with 70% odds in your favor.
Now watch what happens:
70% of the time you'd win 3,000 chips total.
30% of the time you'd lose 3,000 chips total.
Your "net average" would be to PROFIT 1200 CHIPS.
That's TRIPLE the results over time!
The key is to get BETTER ODDS and RISK MORE.
I better interject here that I do NOT recommend being one of
those players who just sits back, waits for the "nuts", and
then goes all-in.
Not even close.
In fact, if you've read my newsletters you know that I'm a
very aggressive player who loves to push action.
The KEY is that I BUILD THIS IMAGE through techniques based
on feeler bets, positioning, and sensing weakness.
AND WHEN THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY COMES ALONG, I RISK AS MANY
CHIPS AS I CAN!
I know that when the odds are heavily in my favor, it's time
to put my eggs in one basket and go for it...
PRINCIPLE 3: THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS RATIONAL OR
"EFFICIENT".
There's a popular stock market concept called, "Efficient
Market Theory" (EMT).
Most of the world's leading business schools teach this
widely-accepted concept.
However...
Warren Buffett says that the EMT is a bunch of hogwash!
He's actually gone on record saying that part of him LOVES
the fact that business schools teach this theory: It makes
things easier on him because his competition doesn't know
what they're doing!
Now... I'm not going to argue whether the theory is right or
wrong. It doesn't matter for our discussion here.
What I find intriguing is what Buffett believes IS true
about the stock market...
You see, the EMT basically says that the stock market is
"efficient" in its pricing... and that most buy/sell
behavior is "rational".
Buffett disagrees. He is CONSTANTLY scouting for
opportunities where he thinks the market is acting in an
IRRATIONAL manner... and then he jumps on the chance to buy
an under-priced stock.
In other words, a core part of his investment philosophy is
that the stock market is NOT efficient... and that there's
always room to grow your "bankroll" when others act
irrationally.
It's the same with poker.
When you're playing Texas Holdem, you want to spot the
"sucker" at the table... the guy who is making IRRATIONAL
decisions.
This doesn't only apply to amateurs, either. Even PROS have
"irrational" habits, tells, and "tilt" behavior.
Your OPPONENTS will open up millions of "profit
opportunities" for you... if you just watch closely.
And that brings us to the next principle:
PRINCIPLE 4: FOCUS ON THE VALUE OF THE BUSINESS, NOT THE
PRICE OF THE STOCK.
This one has almost a direct translation to poker:
FOCUS ON THE PLAYERS, NOT THE CARDS.
You're not playing poker against the house... you're playing
against your opponents.
With the stock market, everyone is always looking at the
PRICE of a stock to determine if it's worth buying or
selling.
Buffett actually doesn't even look at the price until LAST.
What he looks at is the VALUE OF THE BUSINESS.
He only invests in top-notch businesses that meet specific
conditions. He wants a business with strong growth prospects
LONG TERM, good management, and stable numbers.
Once he finds a business that meets these criteria, THEN he
looks at the price.
When the cards come out, what's the first thing you're
thinking about? What are you looking at?
You should be thinking about your OPPONENTS... the
POSITIONING at the table... the BETTING HABITS you've picked
up in the last few hands... and your opponents' FACES as
they look at their cards.
THEN when the action comes to you and it's YOUR TURN, you
should peek to see what you're holding.
Opponents first, cards second.
PRINCIPLE 5: DEMAND A MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR EVERY PURCHASE.
Warren Buffett is actually a very "conservative" investor,
as are most poker professionals. He'll only buy stocks that
he feels are practically "guaranteed" to go up.
You should demand a "margin of safety" on every hand you
play. This is actually much easier than it sounds.
Some of your tactics should include:
* Avoiding heads-up situations with players who have more
chips, and instead favoring those with fewer chips. (That
way if you go all-in and lose, you can still be in the
game.)
* Buying pots and bluffing when you have good positioning.
(That way you can get a read on your opponent and escape if
things go bad.)
* Only "chasing" draws when the pot odds are CONSIDERABLY in
your favor. (That way you end up way ahead over time.)
* And so on.
*** PLAY POKER LIKE WARREN BUFFETT ***
Perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT lesson I've learned from Warren
Buffett is to NEVER FEAR doing the "unpopular" thing.
His career PROVES that "going against the grain" is often
the BEST choice.
He doesn't live by what others do... he operates on GUIDING
PRINCIPLES that "win" over time.
Whether it's ways to leverage table positioning, tactics for
defeating common opponent styles, techniques for "stealing
the button", or figuring out the right times to bluff...
...You've got to first learn the POKER PRINCIPLES. And then
you need the GUTS and DISCIPLINE to stick to them.
So where do you learn these principles? And where do you get
the discipline required for long-term success?
The best place to start is with an ODDS CALCULATOR like
Holdem Genius. If Warren Buffet were a Holdem player, my
guess is he'd use an odds calculator ALL THE TIME.
He's the second richest man in the WORLD... right behind
Bill Gates. Forbes estimates that his net worth is $40
BILLION.
(How's THAT for a bankroll?)
What's interesting about Buffett is that he made his fortune
over a LONGGG period of time... by consistently beating the
stock market year after year after year.
He wasn't one of those "overnight" dot-com billionaires.
He wasn't "lucky" to be in the right place at the right
time.
He didn't "invent" some new technology that changed the
world.
Nope... all he did was invest and "pick winners" over and
over. Since taking control of Berkshire 40 years ago,
Buffett has delivered a compound annual return of 22%.
AND JUST BY DOING THAT, he became the 2nd richest man alive.
OK-- so why am I rambling on about 75-year old man who's
good at investing?
The reason is because I've realized that there are DOZENS of
important parallels between the STOCK MARKET and POKER.
Here are just a few:
* The stock market is often considered "gambling", due to
its unpredictable nature... just as POKER is often
considered gambling, even though it's a SKILL game.
* The stock market has a heavy emphasis on odds and
mathematics... just like poker.
* The stock market is predominately a male-driven
industry... just like poker.
* The stock market has PLENTY of up's and down's, and
"streaks"... just like poker.
* And so on.
Of course, these are "surface" similarities.
Now think about the PSYCHOLOGY of poker and the stock
market... and how they're often EXACTLY THE SAME:
* In the stock market, everyone dreams of buying that one
MIRACLE STOCK that will go from $2 to $200 and make them
rich...
In poker, everyone has their "pipe dream" of winning a huge
million-dollar tournament on ESPN.
* When a stock tanks, most investors FREAK OUT and
immediately make several bad investment decisions in a row.
It's usually THESE decisions that hurt them the most.
In poker, this is known as "tilt". Bad beats cause some
damage... but it's usually the decisions you make AFTER the
bad beats that cause you to lose the game.
* Believe it or not, most stock investors come out on the
LOSING END over time... even though the market has
historically gone UP year after year.
Most poker players end up losing over time also, despite all
the "fish" out there to prey on.
* And so on.
OK, so you get the idea.
Lately I've been reading a lot of books about the stock
market... and especially about Warren Buffett. (Hell, I need
somewhere to invest all these poker winnings!)
Anyway, here's what's REALLY interesting:
Warren Buffett's INVESTMENT APPROACH is almost identical to
the POKER STRATEGY I use every day.
And it's the SAME approach used by top poker pros to
consistently win tournaments and ring games...
Interesting, huh?
Of course, it makes sense when you think about it.
If poker and investing are similar, then the guys who beat
the STOCK MARKET probably use the same techniques as the
guys who win at POKER.
And who better to learn poker from than the "KING" of the
stock market... and the 2nd richest man in the world?
*** WARREN BUFFETT'S WINNING APPROACH ***
Warren Buffett operates on PRINCIPLES. He doesn't get caught
up in "hype" or emotion.
Below are the five MOST IMPORTANT principles that he
follows... and how they relate to your poker game.
PRINCIPLE 1: PATIENCE IS KEY.
Patience, patience, patience!
It's the number one mistake that causes most poker players
to lose... and it's one of the "secrets" to Buffett's 22%
annual returns.
Warren Buffett does not make an investment unless he is
absolutely 100% confident that it will make him money.
That means he PASSES UP a lot of great investment
opportunities.
Warren Buffett has said "no" to stocks that ended up
increasing by 10,000%!
But more importantly... he's passed up all those other
stocks that LOOKED GOOD, but PLUMMETED later.
The problem is, us human beings are addicted to ACTION and
MOVEMENT and EXCITEMENT. We don't want to just sit around
and WAIT.
But that's EXACTLY what Buffett does...
He waits.
And waits.
And waits.
He KNOWS that sooner or later, a GREAT opportunity will come
up... and then he'll jump on it.
It's the same way with poker.
You've GOT to be patient. We all want to "get in there" and
make strong bets... bluff out opponents... and take down
lots of pots. We want ACTION.
BUT THAT'S NOT HOW YOU DO IT.
You've got to sit back... be patient... and WAIT.
Wait for good cards.
Wait for the PERFECT time to bust the manic at the table.
Wait for the PERFECT time to steal the blinds.
Wait for the PERFECT time to bluff out an opponent.
Wait for the PERFECT time to go all-in.
And then when you DO make a move...
PRINCIPLE 2: MAINTAIN A "LOW TURNOVER" PORTFOLIO OF JUST A
FEW STOCKS.
Buffett insists on keeping 10-20% turnover with his
portfolio. This means he generally holds onto a stock for
5-10 years... AT LEAST.
This is obviously OPPOSITE of how most investors do it. Most
investors are checking the tickers every HOUR-- watching for
the slightest indication of movement or news.
More importantly... Buffett only invests in a FEW STOCKS AT
A TIME.
Now THIS is crucial, because it goes against everything
you've ever learned.
Growing up, you probably heard this advice a lot:
"Never put all your eggs in one basket."
Right?
Well, Warren Buffett does the OPPOSITE.
He puts all his eggs in one basket... but... he chooses that
basket VERY CAREFULLY!
You see, Buffett believes that if you've done your homework
and you're confident in your decision, there's NO NEED to
"diversify".
In fact, he believes this is the ONLY REAL WAY to get rich
in the stock market. Because if you buy LOTS of stocks, some
are doomed to go down... and that will hurt your gains.
Now think how this relates to poker.
In poker, most players risk money on LOTS of pots, and try
to get the best odds for each one... maybe 55%, 60%, and the
OCCASIONAL 70% or higher.
What PROFESSIONAL poker players do is only play those
OCCASIONAL pots with the best odds.
BUT, they risk more chips when they do it...
So instead of risking 20% of your chip stack five times...
you want to risk 90% of your chip stack ONE time. But you
choose that time VERY CAREFULLY!
For instance, let's say the "average" poker player enters
three pots where he feels the odds are in his favor.
The three pots go like this:
1.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.
2.) He risks 1000 in chips with 50% odds.
3.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.
Now... MATHEMATICALLY speaking... there are EIGHT different
ways these scenarios can go. They are as follows (a win is
designated with "W" and a loss with "L"):
1.) W-W-W
2.) W-W-L
3.) W-L-W
4.) W-L-L
5.) L-W-W
6.) L-W-L
7.) L-L-W
8.) L-L-L
If he wins all three, he ends up with 3000 chips in profit.
If he wins two but loses one, he ends up with just 1000
chips in profit.
If he LOSES two but wins one, he ends up with 1000 chips in
losses.
And he if loses all three, he loses 3000 chips total.
Get it?
Now let me share with you the PERCENTAGES of the above
scenarios.
Watch out, this may surprise you.
If you were to play three pots as described above and risk
1000 chips for each one, and do this exercise 100 times,
here's what would happen:
18% of the time you'd win 3,000 chips total.
42% of the time you'd win 1,000 chips total.
32% of the time you'd lose 1,000 chips total.
8% of the time you'd lose 3,000 chips total.
Your "net average" would be to PROFIT 400 CHIPS.
OK... that's the "normal" approach.
Now let's look at the WARREN BUFFETT approach.
Let's say you entered just ONE pot and risked 3000 chips
(instead of 1000) with 70% odds in your favor.
Now watch what happens:
70% of the time you'd win 3,000 chips total.
30% of the time you'd lose 3,000 chips total.
Your "net average" would be to PROFIT 1200 CHIPS.
That's TRIPLE the results over time!
The key is to get BETTER ODDS and RISK MORE.
I better interject here that I do NOT recommend being one of
those players who just sits back, waits for the "nuts", and
then goes all-in.
Not even close.
In fact, if you've read my newsletters you know that I'm a
very aggressive player who loves to push action.
The KEY is that I BUILD THIS IMAGE through techniques based
on feeler bets, positioning, and sensing weakness.
AND WHEN THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY COMES ALONG, I RISK AS MANY
CHIPS AS I CAN!
I know that when the odds are heavily in my favor, it's time
to put my eggs in one basket and go for it...
PRINCIPLE 3: THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS RATIONAL OR
"EFFICIENT".
There's a popular stock market concept called, "Efficient
Market Theory" (EMT).
Most of the world's leading business schools teach this
widely-accepted concept.
However...
Warren Buffett says that the EMT is a bunch of hogwash!
He's actually gone on record saying that part of him LOVES
the fact that business schools teach this theory: It makes
things easier on him because his competition doesn't know
what they're doing!
Now... I'm not going to argue whether the theory is right or
wrong. It doesn't matter for our discussion here.
What I find intriguing is what Buffett believes IS true
about the stock market...
You see, the EMT basically says that the stock market is
"efficient" in its pricing... and that most buy/sell
behavior is "rational".
Buffett disagrees. He is CONSTANTLY scouting for
opportunities where he thinks the market is acting in an
IRRATIONAL manner... and then he jumps on the chance to buy
an under-priced stock.
In other words, a core part of his investment philosophy is
that the stock market is NOT efficient... and that there's
always room to grow your "bankroll" when others act
irrationally.
It's the same with poker.
When you're playing Texas Holdem, you want to spot the
"sucker" at the table... the guy who is making IRRATIONAL
decisions.
This doesn't only apply to amateurs, either. Even PROS have
"irrational" habits, tells, and "tilt" behavior.
Your OPPONENTS will open up millions of "profit
opportunities" for you... if you just watch closely.
And that brings us to the next principle:
PRINCIPLE 4: FOCUS ON THE VALUE OF THE BUSINESS, NOT THE
PRICE OF THE STOCK.
This one has almost a direct translation to poker:
FOCUS ON THE PLAYERS, NOT THE CARDS.
You're not playing poker against the house... you're playing
against your opponents.
With the stock market, everyone is always looking at the
PRICE of a stock to determine if it's worth buying or
selling.
Buffett actually doesn't even look at the price until LAST.
What he looks at is the VALUE OF THE BUSINESS.
He only invests in top-notch businesses that meet specific
conditions. He wants a business with strong growth prospects
LONG TERM, good management, and stable numbers.
Once he finds a business that meets these criteria, THEN he
looks at the price.
When the cards come out, what's the first thing you're
thinking about? What are you looking at?
You should be thinking about your OPPONENTS... the
POSITIONING at the table... the BETTING HABITS you've picked
up in the last few hands... and your opponents' FACES as
they look at their cards.
THEN when the action comes to you and it's YOUR TURN, you
should peek to see what you're holding.
Opponents first, cards second.
PRINCIPLE 5: DEMAND A MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR EVERY PURCHASE.
Warren Buffett is actually a very "conservative" investor,
as are most poker professionals. He'll only buy stocks that
he feels are practically "guaranteed" to go up.
You should demand a "margin of safety" on every hand you
play. This is actually much easier than it sounds.
Some of your tactics should include:
* Avoiding heads-up situations with players who have more
chips, and instead favoring those with fewer chips. (That
way if you go all-in and lose, you can still be in the
game.)
* Buying pots and bluffing when you have good positioning.
(That way you can get a read on your opponent and escape if
things go bad.)
* Only "chasing" draws when the pot odds are CONSIDERABLY in
your favor. (That way you end up way ahead over time.)
* And so on.
*** PLAY POKER LIKE WARREN BUFFETT ***
Perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT lesson I've learned from Warren
Buffett is to NEVER FEAR doing the "unpopular" thing.
His career PROVES that "going against the grain" is often
the BEST choice.
He doesn't live by what others do... he operates on GUIDING
PRINCIPLES that "win" over time.
Whether it's ways to leverage table positioning, tactics for
defeating common opponent styles, techniques for "stealing
the button", or figuring out the right times to bluff...
...You've got to first learn the POKER PRINCIPLES. And then
you need the GUTS and DISCIPLINE to stick to them.
So where do you learn these principles? And where do you get
the discipline required for long-term success?
The best place to start is with an ODDS CALCULATOR like
Holdem Genius. If Warren Buffet were a Holdem player, my
guess is he'd use an odds calculator ALL THE TIME.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
